Biotech Values

[jbog]

Did RVNC’s business proposition radically change for the worse?

A couple of things dealing soley with Revance and in the general marketplace has changed in my view.

Back in 2013/2014 Revance was proposing to produce the complete product in-house. While they built limited capacity I'm guessing they'll only be able to supply clinical trials as needed. They will have Ajinomoto Althea take care of the fill/finish operations instead.

The nature of dealing with neurotoxins is that once a site is polluted it'll never being anything else.

Secondly, and more important is the power of Allergan. Who would have guessed that TEVA would still control 66% of the Copaxone market 2 to 3 years after the entry of generics. I warned that Teva was going to put up a fight, but they've wildly exceeded my own expectations.

Revance isn't a bad company by any measure, but I think they've gotten ahead of themselves with expenses while meandering towards approval. By no why am I saying a investment here would be bad but in my opinion it should have a nice end of year going into approval and then reality will set in after approval.

As Always, Good Luck.