Hey UVA, NSX, font, SFT, Chaka, and other longs,
I just thought I’d share my thought process.
Revenues for 2018 = app 125k
OS = app 1B
To have a pps of $0.01, we are at app. 80x
Now, imagine Q1 revs to be 100k (we know it is going to be more)
Now, assume we don’t add any additional docs and we stabilize at 100k per Q = 400k for 2019. ( we know we’ve adding docs and this number will at least be double = 800k). This also assumes that we make no progress on any other front, including FemCelz, which is already being marketed. Now, all things being equal (no Chang in OS), our pps will be app. $0.04 for 2019.
However, we are adding docs every Q. So, if we add 3 docs per Q - for a full Q, we grow by app. $100k from previous Q - assuming we had Revs of $100k in Q4 with 3 docs fully performing for the entire Q. So, our Revs for 2019, will become, after we increase by $100k per Q by adding 3 docs per Q, app. $1.3M, which at the same 80x, gives us a pps of $0.104. This will be realized after the Q1 2020.
Now, let’s talk about fully diluted pps. If the logic from above holds and we get to 1.3B OS, our pps at the end of this year will be app. $0.08.
As OS increases, 80x will be reduced by app. same %, so worst case, we will see a pps of app. $0.06. This is assuming ‘no changes in every thing else’. This is the ultimate worst case!
Please tell me what u think. If you need details of the math, let me know.
Now, I see that there are many other patents and avenues for generating additional revs. So, reality for me is that the pps will be higher than my estimates. How much higher? Don’t know.
