I had a friend in the Roche trial. It showed great promise and then a few participants had some abnormal labs and I believe it was put on clinical hold; they stopped the trial. She was forced to stop prematurely, but was cured, regardless. Had she started a few weeks later she may not have made it. Then once you fail, you generally can't get into another trial, and your odds of success diminish greatly. I know, personally met a woman who cleared on her 7th time. I briefly crossed paths while I was going to get screened for a phase 3 Vertex trial in June 2008 (VX-750/telaprevir/Incivek).
I traveled 1000 miles to get into the trial, got a biopsy which said I was stage 0/1, so I dropped out without ever dosing. (I wanted to avoid IFN and RBV)
5 years later may labs indicated cirrhosis, 2 years running. A biopsy indicated I was very close to stage 3 when I got accepted into the Gilead phase 3 trial for what would become Harvoni.
When you look at all the big players that tried and failed in HCV, it really is a rather impressive list.
We are also seeing that happen in NASH and HBV.
The odds of having a collaboration and having two successful HCV treatments is pretty darn impressive considering so many with great experience, resources and pedigree failed.
You have to wonder what the odds are in recreating that success in HBV and NASH?
