8:30 Non-farm payrolls
Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 196,000 vs 20,000
Unemployment Rate - Level 3.8% vs 3.8 %
Private Payrolls - M/M change 182,000 vs 25,000
Manufacturing Payrolls - M/M change -6,000 vs 4,000
Participation Rate - level 63.0% vs 63.2%
Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.1% vs 0.4%
Average Hourly Earnings - Y/Y change 3.2% vs 3.4%
Av Workweek - All Employees 34.5 hrs vs 34.4 hrs
Highlights
It's back to normal as nonfarm payroll bounced back to trend, up a higher-than-expected 196,000 in March vs Econoday's consensus for 170,000 and near the top of the consensus range. This is a strong report but uniformly robust. February, which rattled the outlook with last month's paltry 20,000 gain, is revised higher but only slightly, now at 33,000.
The unemployment rate remains very low, unchanged at an as-expected 3.8 percent with the pool of available workers lean and drawn down slightly in the month to 11.4 million. Yet wage indications are favorable at least if you're on the FOMC, up a non-inflationary 0.1 percent in the month in a gain that will encourage accommodative policy. The year-on-year rate is down 2 tenths to 3.2 percent.
The payroll breakdown is mixed highlighted once again by professional & business services, up 37,000 following February's standout 54,000 increase, a gain that saved that month from payroll contraction. Increases here suggest businesses, facing strong demand, are turning to contractors to keep output up. On the less positive side, retail continues to contract, down 12,000 and 20,000 the last two months, and manufacturing, where less favorable indications have been piling up, down 6,000 after a very thin 1,000 increase in February.
But the strong takeaway from today's report is very positive. The labor market remains the nation's central source of economic strength at the same time that wages have room to move higher. For monetary policy, it's wait-and-see with no need at all to raise rates yet also no need to further stimulate demand.
Consensus Outlook
A major rebound is expected for nonfarm payrolls in the March employment report, to a consensus 170,000 vs February's minimal and very unexpected increase of only 20,000. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.8 percent with average hourly earnings cooling from February's 0.4 percent jump to an increase of 0.2 percent. The year-on-year rate for earnings is expected to hold unchanged at 3.4 percent. Private payrolls are seen rising 168,000 with manufacturing payrolls expected to increase 10,000. The workweek is seen rising incrementally to 34.5 hours.
Dan 
AI
