Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[trunkmonk]

Didnt take long to find this from Kth, this is the only board his posts are on and he started posting at the time the GSEs went above 4 in 2016.

Okay, so $75-100 is absolute best case unrealistic unicorns and rainbows scenario, because it assumes that Fannie will get its capital buffer from thin air and no warrants exercised.

What I'm trying to do now is see exactly how much money Fannie actually received from the government and how much of it was advanced from Treasury for the sole purpose of sending it right back. According to TH717 (yeah, I know lol), FnF combined got $187B of bailout money but $55B of it was immediately sent back. This means the bailout money has been completely repaid plus $125B.

A settlement, then could either have the government give back the excess and keep the warrants, basically an instant recap with no dilution until the government starts selling its shares, or keep the excess money and cancel the warrants (more likely because politicians will never want to write a huge check like that).

Tim Howard's $75-100 calculating for common PPS post-release was taken out of context? I had taken it at face value, though it does (unrealistically) assume no warrant exercise or other dilution of any kind.

Dont know source from Tims estimates but seems odd some like to quote him now.