OPTIONS TRADERS CO-OP

[gdl]

I played what was in front of me. I assumed a spike move up would result in an immediate drop but didn't know the timing. I already lost OTM Puts that expired Friday despite the huge drop. I mentioned a few weeks ago i was going to load up on PUTS and keep the expiration dates tight. I gambled and finally caught the drop.

The pattern i mentioned looked like the March 2018 style one. My bias since the start of the rebound from recent lows was that this was not the start of a new bull run or even resumption of one but rather a wave 2 rebound.

I am not only assuming the current drop is deep but also that it violates the 2525 lows.

I KNEW 2 very strong external events was happening at the time of the rebound. One was the Mueller report but more importantly the FED had telegraphed the economic slowdown on 2 different occasions within the last 3 months. they went form holding off on new rate hikes 3 months ago to a definitive no rate hike in 2019. it was unanimous. they don't do this just to keep the stock market in the stratosphere. They do it because they see a recession dead ahead.

All this was told on this blog for my many reasons to bet the current rebound was not going to hold. I kept guessing wrong on timing and still kept my best within 5 trading days. I was actually going to bet double the Thursday move for 400 SPY options amounting to 16K but held off thinking I was way too excited and irrational. Not complaining since this sucker could easily have lasted till end of next week.

I ALWAYS bet this way when I see a major reversal dead ahead. I did it with the start of trade war. I try to use some chart recognition patterns from the past and also listen to EW blogs to determine if they see any pattern that could account for the immediate drop. EW is not my thing since it has too many ways to interpret without violating the moves either straight up or down.

MY BETTING style is not one i recommend to anyone else. In fact I was away late Thursday and didn't even look at the market till after 4 PM of Friday. Not a normal way to bet 8K on late Thursday and not even look at Fridays move.

Long winded rambling post as usual. Sorry i can't be precise but that's the way my betting works also. So YES I stick with my PUTS and expect next 2 days to be down by close of each. how low? my guess is around 270-268 but it is just an optimistic guess. If we rally Monday by the close i will assume my bets are worthless.