A LOT HAS CHANGED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS — SO IT’S TIME TO END MY “SILENCE”
The past 24 hours have marked a crucial turning point in the Hemp-CBD Legalization story
From the standpoint of providing any detailed analysis on a timeframe for the Hemp & CBD Legalization Mania starring CBD Oil and CBD Beverages, I have been staying pretty quiet over the past few weeks, largely because I’ve been waiting on a public signal from the FDA and a public signal from a big player in the CBD industry to assist me in developing a theoretical framework for the mania timeframe
I am happy to report that both of those signals have been sent over the past 24 hours
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I have previously referred to the excitement/fear ratio as being the vanguard of all cannabis manias
In the case of the predicted Hemp and CBD Legalization Mania, please allow me to be a bit simplistic for the purposes of most optimally conveying the meaning of this golden ratio
Though there are a multitude of factors responsible for the composition of the numerator and the denominator in this particular composite variable, it is quite clear that the biggest slice of the pie chart in these respective domains is the regulation/legality issue represented by the specter of the FDA and the mass market/proliferation issue represented by national chain retailers
So think of the fear metric as being driven by the FDA and the excitement metric as being represented by national chain retailers
The FDA has been strongly (and in my opinion, wrongly) associated with the possibility of a crackdown, a slowdown or an agency that will run interference on the CBD industry
Thus far, this has been the biggest source of investor fear
National chain retailers are just as strongly associated with the mass market, the proliferation of products across geographic regions (“going national”) and the BOOM TIME in the CBD sector that investors in this industry have been waiting to experience
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Due to a variety of factors upon which I have previously remarked — including but not limited to the government shutdown, the FDA reiterating their pre-existing regulatory stance (unchanged since 2016) on CBD not meeting criteria to be defined as a permissible dietary supplement or food ingredient, and most importantly (and most frustrating for me personally) the media’s misguided oversimplification, misunderstanding and outright histrionic misinterpretation of a number of states employing their own regulations around certain CBD products — the fear variable was fueled by Exxon
Contemporaneously, the excitement variable was starved by these very same factors — along with the fact that time is an important variable on the X-axis (with excitement on the Y-axis), and positive developments in a newly legal industry don’t necessarily happen overnight
The resultant Excitement/Fear ratio was simply not conducive to the development of a mania in the Hemp and CBD sector
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With the FDA finally providing some really substantial and positive color commentary on their outlook for CBD-infused food and beverages on Tuesday, alongside CVS breaking the ice and becoming the 1st national chain retailer to announce the sale of CBD products on Wednesday, the probability of an improving E/F ratio and a significant sector warmup in the Spring has been greatly enhanced in just the past 24 hours
Does this mean we should expect the mania will hit sometime during the Spring?
Not necessarily
But it could — and that’s not something I felt really definitive about saying until today
The conditions are certainly beginning to appear more favorable
In that way, a cannabis sector mania is a lot like a hurricane
Certain environmental conditions are not merely conducive, but absolutely essential to its earliest stages of formation, continued development and progressive maturation
THE 2019 GRAND SALAMI
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