MU -.33 to 40.04 ahead of earnings after the bell. DRAM prices have dropped a lot since the start of the year, yet the stock is up 30% YTD.
Citi is cautious -
fly 3/19 -
Citi predicts 'DRAM crash,' sees no second half recovery for Micron
The Micron Technology bulls think we are at or approaching the bottom and that a recovery will happen in the second half of 2019, Citi analyst Christopher Danely tells investors in a pre-earnings research note, citing his talks with investors. The analyst, however, disagrees with this thesis based on his channel checks and supply/demand model. He believes memory selling prices could bottom in the second half of 2019, not the first half. All three DRAM producers are stockpiling inventory in order to prevent flooding the market with excess of supply, Danely tells investors in a research note. He believes current production rates remain well ahead of demand and that the excess inventory on the balance sheets of the memory companies will need to be written down or written off. The analyst estimates that normal DRAM channel inventory is one month and it's at three months now "only due to producers holding inventory." In a research note titled "Earnings Preview: Don't Go Away Mad...Just Go Away. It's Only Getting Worse, No 2H recovery for Micron Due to DRAM Crash," Danely reiterates a Neutral rating on Micron Technology with a $35 price target. The chipmaker closed yesterday up 7c to $39.61. He expects in-line fiscal Q2 results on when the company reports on March 20 but sees downside to 2019 and 2020 estimates "due to the DRAM Crash." :theflyonthewall.com
