Govt action on Enery income trusts in canada having knocked props outa jrs for a bit---I'll paste some good input on that in a minute--cnq alone has cut back exploration by 1.5 billion $---primarilly gas---
Anyway, i recently put some more dough into Rogere's tdc, which I figured 4 yrs ago was worth honest 5$ a share after looking at 43-101 done by dave dupre---looks like tdc broke out today with 5x normal vol, settled +20% and bids stacked up:
Market Depth By Order For TDC as of 2006-11-13 15:59:32
Special terms orders and non-boardlot orders do not appear in the Market Depth by Order.
Bid Ask
Broker Volume Price
85 Scotia 5,000 0.51
1 Anonymous 4,500 0.50
19 Desjardins 5,000 0.50
57 Interactive 10,000 0.50
1 Anonymous 30,000 0.50
7 TD Sec 5,000 0.50
1 Anonymous 250,000 0.49
6 Union 10,000 0.48
1 Anonymous 150,000 0.48
1 Anonymous 10,000 0.47
Price Volume Broker
0.52 22,000 14 ITG
0.53 19,000 88 E-TRADE
0.53 3,000 7 TD Sec
0.53 10,000 85 Scotia
0.54 14,000 79 CIBC
0.54 3,000 57 Interactive
0.55 10,000 80 National Bank
0.55 3,000 57 Interactive
0.55 9,000 1 Anonymous
0.57 5,000 57 Interactive
Anyhow, back to gas, trust impact, hit on service cos' etc--
from pescod le--
CANADIAN NATURAL RES. (T-CNQ) $57.34 -0.56
CENTURION ENERGY (T-CUX) $11.97 +0.89
You can almost hear the air whistling out of the balloon
– the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin is probably the
most expensive area of the world to operate and explore
in—high wages, high service costs, high land costs plus a
maturing basin—and now the “Sugar-Daddy” that supported
this high cost operation—the Income Trust has
been taken away.
Canadian Natural Resources alone has announced cut
backs in exploration (mainly gas) of about $1.5 billion,
which tells you something…….Yes, one company $1.5 billion.
They have also repeatedly stated in the press that if
the big companies do cut back it might bring service costs
down.
Drillers and service companies aren’t going to be as
busy as they were and the rates that they were charging
before are probably going to be weakened, which probably
sets us up for another cycle for natural gas down the road.
Meanwhile, there are always opportunities and the news
out of the Middle East that Dana Gas is buying Centurion Energy,
the Calgary based company with assets in Egypt and
Tunisia, makes one wonder if suddenly the assets of those
Calgary based companies with assets and plays in the Middle
East might be worth a little more……..
Another play that is based in the Middle East that might
benefit from the CUX buy-out is Rally Energy, the Abby
Badwi company that has repeatedly enjoyed recommendation
calls from analyst Andy Gustajtis and also oil-man
Dick Gusella (Abby and Dick have worked together before).
With the higher prices for the last few years for oil, one
wonders if the Middle East companies aren’t flushing cash
and maybe there can be some more of these take-outs
down the road as well, or at least again the thought of
higher valuations for companies based in that area of the
world.
Meanwhile, there are also some junior explorers out
there such as John Clarke’s Candax Energy with plays in Tunisia
and the Middle East and also Oracle Energy with some
high profile plays in Yemen.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX I used to be in rally and made good $$---but some of the guys were former talisman and kinda rubbed me the wrong way so i got off----also i figgered they'd shoot their wad and not get the heavy oil in egypt figured out--by stock price i was maybe wrong, but still can't lose too bad when you leave with a triple----
AI
