Well another great day of solid accumulation in Australia it's been the same all week long steady and deliberate, not a momo style run, just a heavy accumulation with purpose, like a walk through the park rather than a jog through the countryside.
Let me preface this response that I am just adding the the chat these are my opinions, and I am only giving my opinions which have been long held as many here know. We have so few posters/followers here I feel we can have an adult conversation without people screaming hype/pump etc.
In regards to price if the stock continues to trade without a takeover coming into play I stick with my $10-20 by years end the price being subject to government purchases and in both size and scope.
A poster on Hot Copper yesterday brought up another stock had has projected $8-10 million revenue for this year which has a $480 mil market cap. I believe "without" any government procurement ReCell will do 15-20 million in revenue. I come to this judging by the Q4 numbers when ReCell had just been approved and was just getting it's feet wet with no real infrastructure and still did over 1 million in sales in the US. If we maintained just the Q4 numbers it's $5-6 million, you can do the math.
A takeover by anyone would IMHO put the price 20 because of the sheer amount of real possibilities in regards to ReCell and the very real avenues of growth there are. Now I have touched on some of these before and will list some here now and remember we are having a conversation here, this isn't a hype or pump its a chat among fellow investors.
1)130+ Burn Centers
2)300 Burn specialists/surgeons
3)Emergency preparedness for a country with 325+ million residents
4)Military with 1 million+ members
5)10's of billions in humanitarian/military aid around the globe
6)Pediatric and Japanese markets opening up by years end
7)Increase in worldwide sales (forget EU)
8)Major pharma's ability to lobby and push their wants.
9)Unfortunate state of Middle East and their bizarre way of going about problems by blowing up both their enemies and their own people.
10)6 month shelf life
11)Future uses which are numerous and under trial
Now all of these things as well as many others will go into a decision on what a buyout price could/would be, it's an unknown but the possibilities are endless with a product such as ReCell.
I know some may take exception at the forget the EU comment, I say this as it is just a reality. It is what it is, and big pharma is all to familiar with the socialized medicine schemes/payoffs/extortion (for lack of a better word) etc going back to individual countries and now with the EU it has only gotten worse.
The truth is the US base in Frankfurt will probably go through more ReCell than the EU ever will in the foreseeable future. In the companies PR about suspended sales and all along has said they do not and have not ever tried to actively promote ReCell, it's not the way things are done and is much to expensive for any start-up pharma product, better to go the obvious routes in the US and put all your efforts and $$ behind that. It's sad, but, its just reality. Socialized medicine is good in many ways, but is bad in even more ways, doctors don't make decisions, guidelines and bureaucrats do.
Luckily the US will never have a socialized medicine scheme, it would cost the country and world endless future cures/improvements not to mention the trillions (yes trillions) in lost jobs, investment etc. A major part of the US economy would go "poof" and be gone in an instant. Sure a minuscule, fraction of research would still go on, but, could you imagine research that was totally run by bureaucrats? You think it takes long now with approval, imagine taking that long just to decide to actually research something or take it from 1 stage to another. Gives me a headache to even think about it.
At the end of the day, it will be what it will be, but, what is a known at this point is Avita and ReCell are on the path now and every week another milestone is hitting, and things are getting done and behind the scenes, decisions are being made, such as in regards to the govt and just where/when/how much will be procured because its the govt and thus reiterates my socialized medicine blather, it's this secretive and unknown, desks must be crossed, even when it's a known (we know BARDA procurement coming) it's a surprise and unexpected when it happens, but, big pharma and their 10's of billions "can" get things done even quicker.
IMHO one can just go into the rest of this year knowing good things are happening, will happen and each day/week/month it's only going to get better. The price will be what the price will be as with other stocks, they go up they pull back a little, then go up again etc. we have some significant advantages, we are just getting started, the possibilities are endless and we have "zero" debt which is a biggy. We will soon, especially with government contracts in hand soon be able to go into a bank and open a credit facility so more stock offers IMHO are over, besides the fact that I think by Q3 revenues/earnings will cover everything.
Oh, I said Japan by end of year because of statement in the PR about Japanese ReCell partnership.......Kiyoshi Takei, President of COSMOTEC said, “The number of patients suffering from chronic wounds and decubitus ulcers is increasing in Japan due to aging. Japan is also planning for the Tokyo Olympic Games in 2020 and must be prepared for major disasters such as a large earthquake. We are very proud to add the RECELL System to our product lineup." So end of 2019 done IMHO is a given.
Peace out
