Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[jakedogman1]

I thought the cc was great.... and remember releasing contract details is up to the client.... IMO we are close to capacity in existing facility and headed towards expansion of the vacant space (all speculation on my part).... granted several things have to go right and several things can go wrong both inside the control and outside the control such as a trial failure (we know all too well)...

On the back of a napkin valuation using 5 times sales and a 10% vacancy factor (i'm real estate so whatever the equivalent term for manuf)... $100 mil capacity plus 25% lab rev ($125 mil)x 90% =$112 mil times 5 multiple gives a $560 market cap and 60 mil shares equals $9 SP. No contribution from Oncologie which is basically a lottery ticket. As for upside.... same numbers as above given $100 mil in add capacity upon completion which costs $30 mil per Lias presentation. Discount that rev stream back for add present value... so in my book $560 mil plus anywhere from $200 to $300 mil add value translates $11 to $13 per share assuming some dilution for cost of build out... all imo and back of the napkin ballpark... is there something I'm missing? And if the M&A market is still hot, we should see some action if we continue to be undervalued.... the current BOD is not compromised with $500k annuities