Monday, March 11, 2019 5:05:15 PM
This has been a long-winded post to say that, at this point in time, JUST the egfr ex20in NSCLC cohort is worth $1B or just under $10/sh. I know this doesn’t mesh w trading philosophies but this is how this Long sees it. This is my lodestar view.
PS I am going to try to come up w a MC using the DCF model for the other cohorts and Rolontis in the next week or so to get the DCF revenue stream for all potential sales when I have some free time. The projections will be iffier or more complicated. For example, for the previously treated her2 ex20in NSCLC cohort presumably there will be more competition (eg DS-8201) so say it only gets 50% penetration due to competition. But what does that say? It says that instead of 2nd line treatment, pozi will be tried in 3rd line so you would subtract a couple of months of usage. What about if pozi gets approval for 1st line? What does that change? Well, they have the same # of patients using posi but the Duration of Treatment will change. So instead of 7m on treatment in 2nd-line it could be 10 or 12m of treatment for 1st line, etc.
Regarding Rolontis, I'll project that, say to price pressures from biosimilars, the total market goes down 25% to $3B even though Neulasta sales went up 5% in the 4thQ 2018 even w 2 biosim in the market (and I read somewhere that Mylan captured 4% of the market last yr but I’m not really paying close attention at least until Rolontis is closer to approval). And regarding Rolontis approval, I feel it’s a pretty sure thing w/o it being a 100% sure thing (ha wordsmithing!). It got a SPA for it’s P3 trial and it met its endpoints which almost assuredly means FDA buy-in. It did reduce the # of patients in the trial but the proof of the pudding is it met its endpoints. I was concerned w the delay in submitting the BLA but pretty sure it was for 12m safety data to mature (see posts 2411 and 2412).
So bottom line, I’m much more bullish than you it seems like but it’s about time Spectrum stops disappointing w their delayed timelines.
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