The Hunt for the Next 10 Bagger

[BioSpecialist]

CHEK = MC $17 Million / Cash $18 Million / Shares Out 8.2 Million / ultra Low Float stock with MASSIVE upside potential . $20++ stock trading at ridiculous $2 . RALLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY


Colorectal Cancer Screening Pill to Be in US Pilot Study
https://www.mddionline.com/colorectal-cancer-screening-pill-be-us-pilot-study

New Presentation
http://ir.check-cap.com/download/CHECK+Corp+Presentation_January+2019.pdf


Check-Cap: This Overlooked Medical Device Company Is Extremely Undervalued

As a result of the much more established market and reimbursement paradigm for capsule endoscopy, in conjunction with C-Scan’s unique ability to circumvent the bowel preparation requirement and detect precancerous polyps, it is conceivable that Check-Cap could scale more than twice as quickly as Given Imaging did since it launched its first product. This implies potential sales for Check-Cap of more than $60M in 2020. Check-Cap believes that the global market opportunity for C-Scan in the US is $5.4B annually (See slide 10 in this presentation), comprised of a global population at age 50 and above of 710 million, an average procedure cost of $600, and a screening frequency of once every 10 years. Hence, $60M of sales contemplates only minimal penetration relative to the aggregate market opportunity. To demonstrate the potential revenue ramp of C-Scan, investors could also study the sales trajectory of Exact Sciences’ (NASDAQ:EXAS) Cologuard. Cologuard generated $26.5M in sales during the first four quarters since the product launched, and within 8 quarters, it exceeded a $100M annualized run-rate.

In my valuation, I was conservative and used only $50M of sales that are only reached in 2022. I used an EV/Sales multiple range of between 5 to 8 (given that the company will still be growing extremely fast). I then conservatively assumed that on top of all warrants being exercised there would be another 100% dilution, so a total of 17M shares. That leads me to a price target in the range of $15.8 and $24.6 at 2022, or 4.5X to 7X current prices. I then assign a 50% chance of success which brings me to a probability weighted price target of $8 to $12.3 or an IRR of 18% to 29%.

However, if you are optimistic and believe the $60M sales in 2020, then $100M of sales is plausible by 2022, and using an 8X multiple, this could potentially be a $800M EV by 2022 or ~$50/share using 15M shares (assuming 75% dilution on top of all warrants being exercised). Obviously, this is pretty much a best case scenario.