Sjacobs26 - I don’t have PM, but thanks for checking in. I haven’t gone anywhere, just been pretty busy with work and life. Plus, sometimes there’s just not a ton of new info to talk about, and it’s not always worth the (irrational?) stress of checking the board and responding every day. It’s worn on me after a few years, and I simply need to take breaks.
I actually don’t have any direct experience in licensing or partnership, and I apologize if I gave you or anyone else that impression. I’ve simply researched every biotech deal I can find for the last ten years or so to try to understand structures, norms, and expectations. I think that overall, the situation CYDY is currently in is in a class by itself - there’s no previous deal that you can really comp to their present position. As a result, I think that basically ANY sort of deal structure is potentially on the table, with up front money and revenue splits as levers to be manipulated to serve the strategies of CytoDyn and any potential partner. There’s so much strategy information that is non public that there’s really no way of guessing what direction it may take, in my opinion. With cancer being the bigger but by far, a deal for HIV may not end up being what we’d love and expect if the company prioritizes just having the cash to get through the next 12 months or so and not try to make a huge payday of it. To your point though, the revenue splits you mentioned tend to be reflective of deals that take place much sooner in the development process. In essence, the partner is shoulder the financial risk of development, and reaping the reward at the end. In this case, the risk/reward is quite different as combo is already past P3 endpoints. I know what that does to risk and deal structure in an efficient world. Who knows what it will do here? I think we’ll all end up happy though. I also agree with your speculations on price floors and expected value from combo, etc. Which makes the investment s no brainer, but it may take patience. C’est la vie.
We also tend to focus on HIV/GvHD for deal discussions, but they could easily be negotiating something on the diagnostic test as well. After all, they’ve mentioned that they’re in talks on “several fronts,” if I recall the quote correctly. Again, that knowledge may change what they’re willing to accept for any single asset in a license/partnership deal.
And to be clear, you’re actually a bit longer than I am, but a terrifyingly large portion of my position is on leverage. “Big” to one person may be “borderline irresponsibly concentrated” to another. For what that’s worth!
