Tuesday, March 05, 2019 2:57:56 PM
1) Absolutely true that an outlier cured patient or two, based on semi-known mechanisms and somewhat available procedures, could lead to a cure. No doubt. And that would be a great thing! However, it's highly unlikely to happen on any measure of scale - if it happens at all - within 5-10 years. Remember the first "Berlin Patient" to be cured via stem cell transplant? That was 2008. Only 11 years later and we have a second successful case! So even if this DOES lead to a cure for HIV, it's unlikely to happen until leronlimab is staring marketing exclusivity mortality directly in the face anyway. Effect on current value? Roughly zero.
2) Remember how the article (that you may not have read) stated that the treatment is "dangerous and has failed in other patients"? Do you know why it's dangerous? It's a complication called Graft-versus-Host Disease (GvHD). Sometimes it's an annoyance, sometimes it kills you. Actually, in a more thorough AP article, it was mentioned that both the Berlin Patient and the London Patient experienced GvHD, though the article failed to mention it by name. If only there were a drug that was effective in combating GvHD in stem cell/bone marrow transplant scenarios...
3) Leronlimab's most valuable, though not most advanced, indication is clearly cancer. This article has zero bearing on that whatsoever, notwithstanding the remote odds that a "cure" therapy could advance fast enough to have significant impact on leronlimab's value as an HIV indication.
If you've been following this for years, I'd hate to see your hot take on something you've just looked at for the first time. But you're entitled to your opinion. Carry on...
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