My analysis of the Security detail as of 3/3/2019
This is just IMO and general breakdown and my own thoughts, so please do your own DD!
A/S 3000,000,000.00 no change
O/S: went from 949.333,993 (2/2/19) to
991,150,917 (3/3/19) so an increase of 41,816,924
Call it 42 Million increase= $455,804 Proceeds at a SP of $0.0109
Last month this was $856,000 when it rose by 79 million O/S on 2/2/19
Since 9/2019 we saw 79 million and now 42 million=121 million shares added*** (see below how this comes into play for my math)
I still wait for a Float update** it has not budged for months
Float is still
525,079,355
CMTH/Tim Warbington own 79 million shares (99% public and not restricted-important protective factor for me. Actually TW holds 3 Million Preferred shares)
I am pleased this O/S has not eclipsed 1.1 B shares. I never want it to get to 1.7B- Investors understand why this is important.
Recall the rise in our O/S last spring when we also saw the gest run to 0.07!
I posted this line back in the fall and again in Feb 2019 with this as my personal strict number between 1.1 Billion and absolutely never want it over 1.7 Billion---this is critical for me.
OTCQB requirement of a SP = or > than $0.01 is still a factor!
Keeping a tight Float after all this is key for me as well-DD this my friends.
Insider selling for the past 14 months is ZERO. NONE, NO INSIDER SELLING
Insider selling has NOT taken place since 8/2017-it has instead been all buying, so I will stay in cash and follow the money!
4/11/2018 buys (acquisitions) direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) @ $0.0138 9,855,290 Shares to T.W.
4/11/2018 buys (acquisitions) indirect Acquisition (Non Open Market) @ $0.0138 9,855,290 Shares to T.W.
10/17/2018 buys (acquisitions) direct Acquisition (Non Open Market) @ $0.0225 4,444,444 Shares to T.W.
10/17/2018 buys (acquisitions) indirect Acquisition (Non Open Market) @ $0.0225 4,444,444 Shares to T.W.
Note conversion and warrants seems, IMO, to be responsible for the O/S increase.
***Outstanding Warrants: We need to get an exact number/value, but I think is 256 Million as of 9/2018,
Institutional notes less than 154 Million
Inst. Investor 154 Million + 256 Million= 410 Million total debt (Estimate) as of 9/2018.
Now take 410 Million-121 Million= 289 Million shares total remaining debt.***
So the increase of 79 as of 2/2/19 and now another 42 Million as of 3/3/19 Million O/S came from a combination of Institutional Investors and/or warrants converting. IMO!
it is what it is!
For us to hit a Market cap of $50 million or $75 million, we need the O/S to stay between what it is and less that 1.1 Billion shares at 0.05-0.065 SP-roughly!
In Biotech world average of $50 million in market cap is typical
Some are asking (Good question really): Could CMTH be buying back shares?
If you factor all debts paid by cashless conversion or buy backs with CMTH turning around and selling them publicly, then I can see a marked % return to CMTH (say 200%-700%). It all depend on how much has been exercised or converted and if any buy-backs have already taken place.
**We will see how things unfold from here to May 2019. That is when I will do a follow up on this post if needed.
My research and my opinion. My opinions is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Your decision whether or not to make a purchase should be based on your own due diligence.
