>It could very well be argued that, given the political climate, that oncology is really THE place to be, because that is one of the few areas where politics might not rear its ugly head. (No one is calling for "safer" cancer drugs.)<
To a certain extent, I agree. No politician wants to be seen impeding cancer research. However, as you already know there is a huge furor over the cost of certain oncology drugs, and substantial debate in the academic and medical community surrounding cost:benefit for these drugs.
Dew's argument--which I agree with after thinking about it--is that there are too many drugs chasing too few dollars in oncology. Apologies to Dew if I've misstated his argument.
Regarding RPRX's business plan: I'm probably stating something that is completely obvious to you, but when and for what price the drugs get sold is a complex balance between risk and reward for both the purchaser and the target.
Provided everything is successful, the purchase price would be maximized after approval by the FDA. As you've probably noticed, acquistions frequently occur during or after phase III trials have completed and before FDA approval. There are also plenty of examples of companies with phase II drugs or even phase I that have been purchased for substantial premiums.
Put it this way: Vicuron (my favorite example since I owned it) was purchased for $1.8 billion after completion of their phase IIIs but before the FDA approved either dalbavancin or anidulafungin. Pfizer took that risk because they would have had to pay a much greater premium after the drugs were approved.
My personal preference for RPRX would be earlier sale for less money, but as they've already stated mid-2008 is their target.
>But they don't have anywhere near the resources they would need to take these drugs into pivotal trials.<
Not sure why you're stating the obvious here. Like every other biotech under the sun, they have to raise cash to carry their programs forward. The decision as to whether to dilute or partner is again a question of risk-reward.
AI
