Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

My assumption is commons come out of this no worse than $6 - but somewhere between $8-15 is the likely share price we'll see at the point of release from conservatorship.

Maybe if release precedes recap, but I don't see that as likely. Otherwise, the common price should gravitate to whatever the secondary offering price is, so if that is low enough then they might not ever get to double digits.

Given this isn't a liquidation scenario - preferred shares aren't going to get par until the dividend is restored. (unless you consider conversion to common shares a 'par' equivalent) Reinstatement could be years from now.

This would keep the commons down too. The common price will be much higher with a dividend, and that can't happen while junior pref dividends are suspended.

If the recap happens as fast as I think it will, there will be no reason to keep the junior pref dividends turned off at that point.

And possibly, if it works out, after riding the quick upside of common I can convert some to preferred shares for the safety/long-term dividend possibilities.

Now this is quite plausible. I think the prefs are the better long- and medium-term play, but the "exuberant buying" you refer to could very well cause them to outperform in the short term.