Wednesday, February 20, 2019 12:55:47 PM
A high school sophomore would be very unlikely to have the basic understanding of economics, finance, capital markets, or business strategy necessary to see or understand the obvious scenario that's kept the financing in Paulson's court to date. This has been discussed ad nauseam. There's nothing fishy, and honestly, it probably doesn't matter anymore. It's a simple waiting game at this point.
For fun, I put together a very simple cash flow model yesterday to estimate potential cancer revenues based on the eight cancers from the PR yesterday, then all cancers (CCR5+, of course) for US only cases, then worldwide cases of the same. I won't be sharing this model or the cash flows/market values it suggests due to its extremely rudimentary nature, but the results were "jarring", in the words of one of my colleagues. It's very, very easy to see why the company has been doing what it has been doing.
And before anyone jumps in to criticize a rudimentary model that they haven't seen and never will, I'll allow the board to know exactly one fact that could be considered personally identifying:
In my field, I'm literally considered an expert in balance sheet/revenue forecasting and in model risk management.
You can take any and all of that for what it's worth, and it's worth exactly what you paid for it.
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