Mark this post, really more for newbies. ADXS has been a public company for more than 12 years now, and there is one over-riding reason the valuation has shrunk to the level it is at today: the science has fallen short of expectations. In 2015, ADXS hit a peak valuation of $1 billion as a result of a raging biotech bull market and numerous institutional investors interested to see how ADXS' science played out. Since then, the vast majority of those investors have sold out. Aduro even shut down its listeria trials based on falling short of primary end points. ADXS' trials were structured without quantifiable primary end points (usually the end points have been overall survival) so there have been no absolute trial "failures" but in aggregate the clinical data has not been good enough to attract sustained interest from investors or big pharma, hence the collapse in valuation to the current fair value of the science. The last two CEOs have been much better than Dan O'Connor, who spent the company's cash inefficiently, as Berlin has cut costs significantly. The problem is that no one to date has been interested in putting money in the company via a partnership, even on the late stage AXAL. The final confirmation that the company's fundamentals may be beyond repair was Amgen taking a look at the prelim NEO data and deciding that further investment in the program was not worth it (basically saying they would rather loose $65 million already put in the program because they do not think further investment will result in commercial success). Investment in ADXS currently is riskier than anytime in the past, because now the company has a portfolio of trial data that has been absorbed by investors and points to a lower probability that the platform will be a success. GLTA
