Jt. thx for that link
note ...from the link
If one observes a small P value, there is a good chance that the next study will produce a P value at least as small for the same hypothesis. No!
This is false even under the ideal condition that both studies are independent and all assumptions including the test hypothesis are correct in both studies.
In that case, if (say) one observes P = 0.03, the chance that the new study will show P ≤ 0.03 is only 3 %; thus the chance the new study will show a P value as small or smaller (the “replication probability”) is exactly the observed P value!
If on the other hand the small P value arose solely because the true effect exactly equaled its observed estimate, there would be a 50 % chance that a repeat experiment of identical design would have a larger P value [37].
In general, the size of the new P value will be extremely sensitive to the study size and the extent to which the test hypothesis or other assumptions are violated in the new study [86]; in particular, P may be very small or very large depending on whether the study and the violations are large or small.....my emphasis
-------------------------------------
So the final P3 is an identical design except the size of the study has doubled ( and secondary endpts are now co primary endpts )
Identical in ...same baseline patient profile , same compliance ...ie surgeon administered same amount of drug to each patient etc etc
Note above again ........" size of new P value will be extremely sensitive to the study size "
------
Lot to think about and to try and understand .
Kiwi
