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Thursday, February 14, 2019 1:34:21 PM
It's hard to price going to the moon, and then of course, we have to assess a probability of the successful results that would lead to it, and then discount back for time and risk...
The Biogen reported results created a +$20 billion market reaction (combined Biogen and Japenese partner) and those results were shockingly far less positive than the results we expect to confirm with NTRP. I think it is very conservative to say that if our results are confirmed as expected, we should be worth at least $2.5 billion ($100/ share fully diluted)... There was a statistical analysis presented that said the probability of success was greater than 80% (I believe that to be a conservative number) and even if you wanted to discount the conservative numbers I've mentioned by 50%, you'd arrive at a current value of $50 per share (fully dilluted)...
As you guys know, that is not crazy, not pie in the sky, it is actually conservative based upon the facts that we know. The key is the probability of success of the confirmatory trial and where things go from there... It should be a fun summer!
Recent SNPX News
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