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Re: Bulldog88 post# 36010

Tuesday, 02/12/2019 11:44:58 AM

Tuesday, February 12, 2019 11:44:58 AM

Post# of 232961
Obviously depends completely on what one thinks the cancer indication is worth in a BO scenario. Gilead currently has about $31b in cash on the books. If leronlimab shoots out the lights re: cancer and makes it to market as a platform drug for first line? No, I personally don't think $31b is enough. Bristol Myers-Squibb picked up Celgene for $74b in a cash and stock deal though. Acquisitions can be financed. It could happen, even at the top end of "I'm never going to work again" level of optimism valuations.

However, I doubt any company would bet the farm like that on one drug that's not even on the market yet. Much more likely to be a very friendly partnership, and maybe a buyout down the road if it all pans out and revenues are flowing. Even if a BP went a little wild and gave CYDY something like $2b upfront and 60% of all future revenues... that's a tiny, survivable bet compared to chucking $30b or something at the company for the whole show when, although HIV is significantly derisked from a clinical perspective, nothing is on the market yet.

All that said, there's nothing to say that CYDY wouldn't take $15b and run. From a balance sheet perspective, plenty of BP could make that happen if they so chose. As silly as it sounds (~100x return from here???), I think that would disappoint a lot of us who want to see what it can do in the cancer realm.

In my mind, this is the core reason that CYDY still exists as an independent company. Once leronlimab became a legitimate acquisition target from an HIV perspective, the company knew cancer was a potential and the asking price went through the roof.
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