Seems to good to be true.
I discovered CYDY as I have a decent position in Gilead (GILD) and someone (likely one of you) posted a comment on a Seeking Alpha article on Gilead a few months back. Thank you in advance whoever that was! I originally started a small position and after researching more and listening the most recent interviews, my optimism grew and I increased my position pretty significantly ( significant for me at least)....and may add more still.
However, as an investor and in general, if something sounds too good to be true, it generally is. In saying this, what am I missing? I understand there are risks of the future products failing, but even with just the combo HIV approval (which seems a sure thing at this point), this stock should be worth $5+? They predict 2020 sales of greater than $480M, so based on the biotech standard of P/S multiple of 4, I calculate this should be worth $6.50. That would be over a 10 bagger, which is pretty rare especially in a short time frame. Like many of you, if any of the GvHD or cancer receives approval, I believe this could be worth significantly more. I know finesand and some of the board contributors have ran the numbers also and all agree it is significantly undervalued. The question I keep coming back to is what am I missing?
Being from a military background I generally look at things from a most likely and most dangerous enemy or competitor perspective. So, I would appreciate any constructive input on the following:
1) Most likely competitor scenario? Many have posted a) strategic partnership, b) possibly selling the HIV arm for the "right price"....what else could there be? Specifically anything more negative than a and b above as I view both a extremely positive for stock price appreciation.
2) Most dangerous scenario? a) competitor steals the CCR5 patent and develops a competing product, CYDY sues for patent infringement and goes bankrupt in court or slightly different with same outcome, b) competitor sues CYDY for patent infringement and they go bankrupt in court? Seems extreme, but nonetheless it was the worst case scenario I could think of (since the science seems proven safe....patient deaths and no products would be worse, but seems very unlikely for the combo HIV at this point).
Personally, I hope that GILD forms a strategic partnership with CYDY. They seem like a good fit as I believe both companies prioritize truly care about the welfare of their patients and investors and the stock price come secondary (not a bad thing IMO). I am also highly encouraged by RP as he decided to join CYDY instead of an easy payday by Merck or Pfizer. GILD has been mentioned several times in interviews by NP, RP or someone asking a question. Thoughts?
