Cel Sci Corporation (CVM)

[Fosco1]

Wow

This is getting too complex for me to follow, sorry I don't have really time by now

I don't know much what "30 events" means, what I do know :

When endpoint is reached, a 10% improvement would mean :
161 dead in SOC
137 dead in MK

236 alive in SOC arm
260 alive in MK arm

Difference is 24. Wider the gap, the better

My Tab 4 in my sheet matches , Feb 17 and Feb 18
Today count should be 271. Endpoint should be reached by 10/15/19 What is stunning is that I didn't have to change my SOC survival curve, I only have to tune the MK benefit to 25,2% to make the event log match those 2 dates almost perfectly

Year Survival%
1 84
2 71
3 63
4 57
5 54
6 49
7 46
8 43

y = aln(x) + b
a = -19,45
b= 84,273

MK VS SOC : + 25,20%


A SOC that would match the same pattern (the two dates plus endpoint in H2 2019) with 0% benefit in MK group would be something like this :

Year SOC
1 94,9
2 79,7
3 70,8
4 64,5
5 59,6
6 55,7
7 52,3
8 49,4
9 46,8
10 44,5


y = aln(x) + b
a = -21,91
b= 94,891

food for thoughts. I would love to have up to date SOC recent (2010 till 2018) data for stages III + IVa HNSCC