There's no confusion here, that's the story. You nailed it. Share price won't move until one of two things happens:
1) There are no more expectations of private placement shares or convertible notes, and the only way in to the investment is the open market.
or:
2) Such a watershed event occurs as to make it obvious that the stock is undervalued, bringing in hedge funds, etc. E.g. it becomes public knowledge that the company turns down an offer of $8/share for the company. Realistically, it's difficult to see that happening prior to #1, but not impossible. For example, breakthrough interim cancer data might be enough to make some hedge funds jump... but they'd still likely go to private placements with friendly terms first unless, you know, those aren't available anymore.
Both of these are different from convincing retail investors (like yourself, I presume) to jump in. Realistically, that's not going to happen on the OTC to a degree that would negate the supply driven by the rinse/repeat buying and selling of risk free shares by private placement investors who are getting warrant coverage. The math just doesn't really add up with the volume unless you start to see some real price appreciation, in which case that's probably already being driven by #1 or #2 above.
The difficult part, as one whom I converse with frequently likes to say, is convincing yourself so completely that something is at once "white" (incredibly valuable based on merit) and "black" (not valued highly at all by the market, which supposedly values things based on merit). The answer there is simple as well, but requires a deep commitment to the belief that the asymmetry of information and access on the OTC is incredibly strong.
I personally have no difficulty with this commitment. It's my entire thesis for looking at OTC stocks as viable investments in the first place.
Please stick around the board. I enjoy your posts.
