I think we should disect this a little more. If they have $18.5M in payables, then a $20M raise will likely just bring them back to even (assuming they continue to spend while they raise the money). It wouldn't provide enough to file the BLA or pay the royalty payment due to Progenics. Therefore, they will have to follow the current raise with another raise -- unless there is a partnership or licensing deal.
CYDY has repeatedly said they run a very aggressive Payables balance. However, that is a practice for desperate companies. And I doubt Progenics will take an IOU for their royalty payment.
And CYDY has repeatedly said they do trickle financing just in time. Again, that is a practice for desperate companies. They have assumed that the price would be higher -- but it hasn't. They have raised well over $100M at depressed pricing -- in small amounts. They would have been MUCH better off raising in material chunks (e.g. $40-$50M) and having a strong balance sheet. Then we wouldn't be sitting here at $150M valuation, we would be $1.5B+. And here we are again, significantly behind on cash to move the company forward, which just yields more delays and risk.
When a company walks the razor's-edge, it is possible to fall off and end up declaring bankruptcy. That would be BP's ultimate stroke of good luck. They would buy the assets out at a song.
I have seen great products fail because of poor financial management. And in this case, CYDY's management team has done a poor job. IMO, there is no debate about it. There is no reason we should have this increased risk of default (or just unnecessary dilution) when we have such great science. I understand the skeletons in the closet from they years of Allen and VanNess running the company -- but we are beyond that. Now is the time to start acting like the valuable company CYDY has the potential to be.
I'm still bullish, but man-o-man, NP and Mike M. sure raise the risk of a "golden" investment.
