Aphria Inc (fka APHA)

[golferman]

Great post found on another board

ProfMoische

January 22, 2019 - 09:17 PM 167 Reads
Post# 29268152

Offer Rejected Before its Submitted

I have a few reasons why this offer will not go in GGBs favour. GGB thinks that they have an edge over Aphria and assume that the vote is on their side. It would be embarrassing to have the offer rejected by 87% of Aphria's shareholders, which it will. But I know GGBs strategy going into this because I've seen offer get rejected (it happens a lot). It's keeping me calm about this. I believe that GGBs only consideration when judging Aphria is based on the perceived damage of the short report that came out on Dec 3rd. They put out the statement that they intended to make an offer on Dec 28, which was after the period of time that Vic had claimed he'd had one out by.

https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/aphria-says-it-will-provide-line-by-line-rebuttal-to-short-seller-allegations.

Today, GGB made good on their previous statement, but didn't change the offer. This tells me that they're banking on the short report to be proven true so that it will be looked as the saviours. And they think that the rebuttal won't come out before May 9th. They also assume that other companies won't make an offer to partner with Aphria before the rebuttal is released. And they think that having a Victoria Secret executive is appealing and that's as good as they think Aphria can hire before that timeframe. They also believe that Aphria investors are prepared to go along with their plan knowing that it would mean saying "see you later" to the TSX and NASDAQ.

Aphria has until May 9th, but much earlier preferably, to unfcuk itself. This means they need to hire a new high profile CEO who doesn't wear gold chains on Midas. They need that HC license for their new operations. They need to release a stockhouse-proof rebuttal to shake off Gregos stench that's been lingering in Leamington.

But, I think that GGBs c-suite grossly misjudged Aphria's LATAM assets, undervalued their Canadian assets, or never put those into their equation at all. The GGB management assume that Bloomberg and other business news articles refuting the short report's more serious allegations did not improve shareholder sentiment towards Aphria's AND they think they have more than 50% of shareholders in favour of this deal.

The offer doesn't stop other companies from bidding on Aphria, and that is most likely to happen. The next quarter numbers come out in late March, which means we'll have a full rec quarter of sales. In terms of SP, there are many reasons why the deal won't go through because they value us at a lower price than the SP now. They value themselves higher than they're currently trading at, and I think their market cap has gone up strangely over the last few months. It was trading at 3 bucks before it mysteriously started to climb on low volume.

If you don't want to vote, then don't send in letter because an absent vote always goes in favour of what Aphria's management decide... and they rejected the initial "intent to offer" and I assume the NR tomorrow says the proposal is ridiculous and that will be the end of that.

TL;DR This deal is going to get rejected by a wide margin, so you can all chill out now.