Nothing wrong with focusing on EPS, especially since profits have been postponed for so long.
The thing is, the gross profit margin had risen to about 42% at lower volumes, and then retraced to 40% at higher volumes.
Right now that 2% is the difference between GAAP Red and BLACK.
Based on today's news I suspect that ROX was buying as much aged bourbon as possible at higher prices than previously.
They were willing to do so because demand was exceeding supply, and they knew they were soon going to start tapping into their own KAD distilled product first laid down in 2015.
They had to feed the "consumer-monster" and prime the pump knowing their own lower cost distilled product was on the way to the bottling room. They had to get the public ready.
Ocean is Jefferson's #1 seller. Based on what Trey said last year in his Fast Company interview, he noted that there were always 180 barrels at sea, at any given time.
Based on what we see in Retail stores, 3 voyages are being released each year, for at least the past 2 calendar years, maybe even 3.
If the news of 192 barrels per voyage is accurate (not a typo), and three voyages per year will continue, they are more than tripling Ocean's production.
We will be able to verify the number of Voyages just by watching social media and dropping into liquor stores and looking for it.
If the above is correct, they are going to shatter $100,000,000 in fiscal 2020 (beginning on April 1, 2019). They might even top $110,000,000.
If the increased number of bottles at sea has already occured, we might be waiting on a blockbuster 10 Q on February 8th.
A 13% YoY bump (that's what occurred the prior 2 Q's) gets revenues to about $27.2 million. Maybe we are looking at $28 million.
I am still thinking it's going to be $26 - $27 million.
Based on the past two years, next quarter (the one we are currently in) will be almost equal.
If the gross profit margin starts to expand once they tap into their own KAD distilled bourbon, we're looking at GAAP black numbers whenever that finally begins to happen.
The wait has been so long for profits. Maybe the whole "investor-world" is taking the Missouri approach; "Show Me".
