Fannie Mae (FNMA)

[kthomp19]

moelis estimates in published plan are neither min nor max, just examples of what prices could be based upon one particular recap plan that is highly unlikely to be final plan when/if adopted. different conversion rates, cap requirements, market comps, etc will yield about any price expectation you want

I agree, in that the price estimate depends on many inputs and can come out any number of ways.

However, I think that almost all of the projections in the Moelis plan err on the side of optimism for the commons. I can't think of any even remotely plausible scenario that results in a share price greater than that of Moelis, and I think Moelis is already unreasonably optimistic on that front. That's why I would be very surprised if the commons ever get past $8 on a (reverse) split-adjusted basis, and could go as low as 40 cents if the government insists on an instant, all-common recap.