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Re: SammieGo post# 7821

Wednesday, 01/09/2019 9:16:48 AM

Wednesday, January 09, 2019 9:16:48 AM

Post# of 21544
Sammie I think your first paragraph could be a reason we no longer have the same CEO. I think the company realized they were onto something but didn't know what. They had not done a good job of explaining to investors the nature of the "exploratory trial" or the pre-specified thesis of probabilities needing a P value of .1 instead of the widely accepted .05. It was all out there for investors to understand on their own but it resulted into the massive attack on the management and the stock and ambulance chasers which was all dismissed. You probably saw posters here claiming there was no longer any reason for further studies of the drug. Now we have the only successful trial of any sort/type for severe alzheimer's in the last 15 years. That's an undeniable fact.

The truth is the company needed to put out top line results in a timely fashion and didn't expect the consequences from the data they had to present at the time. Several key industry leaders stated there was a positive signal from the data but is simply wasn't enough in a low float stock when you knew that the next study was a LONG ways off and shorts had a lot of money to make and quick opportunity to do it. Sad thing is and I think InTheTrenches has pointed this out, is that if memantine patients had been excluded from that trial, we may well be in the middle of a confirmatory P3 and on our way to final approval. Shame for patients and shareholders. It was a bad break that can come from an exploratory trial but if you exclude all the standard of care drugs in a trial you could never recruit enough patients. This is one reason I made my post last night about what CLEAR and CLEAN data can do from a P2 in a large indication in a CNS disease. Next go around top line should be simple and clean and we'll know what we have.

Depending on your cost basis, I think many here will sell off a portion they bought down below 4 bucks just to play it safe. Many bought many more shares than they had anticipated so that could be a wise decision. Of course from this low price there is a temptation to hold through. If the price goes to 20 bucks (went to 29 last time) I may sell 20% (keep in mind I'm not a 5 figure investor here. I'm just a Joeblow investor). If we are sitting at 10 bucks going into results I may just gamble, especially depending on what we see with pipeline development on other fronts. I'm ABSOLUTELY a believe in the MS prospects here and I've put many hours of research into that possibility. All JMHO of course.
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