Wednesday, January 09, 2019 3:49:12 AM
Mostly chapter 'Consensi Valuation' in our blog https://finesand.wordpress.com/2018/12/15/kitov-pharmaceuticals-ktov-the-last-mile-of-a-long-journey/
(Done by SeaOfSand, feinsand and with help from David)
US deal with Coeptis, 50% royalties on profits is the equivalent of 22.5% on gross sales, 53% above industry average of 14.7%.
Re-aligned Consensi sales price to 100% 50% and 25% of rebated Vimovo + Celebrex sales price,
considering $100M the minimum constraint sales to kick off Consensi (in the US). Thx David.
Therefor we settle for the US prices as follows: Maximum $4.1407/pill, the expected $3.2877/pill and floor $1.50/pill.
All per share numbers are based on fully diluted shares or ADS of 26.004M.
China sales price minimum is 33% of US price lately, but could be 50% or higher.
Note that we use a very low conservative market penetration of only 3%, we would expect 6-9% might be possible, leading to 2-3x of below valuations.
Expected Price of $3.2877/pill
This results to $14.97/sh for China & South-Korea and $29.58/sh for the US, $44.55/sh in total @ P/E 10 including a 10% discount. This Consensi valuation is 6x of Grunenthal’s Oct’18 acquisition of Vimovo EU rights (ex-US and ex-JP).
Floor Price of $3.2877/pill
This results to $6.83/sh for China & South-Korea and $13.50/sh for the US, $20.33/sh in total @ P/E 10 including a 10% discount. This Consensi valuation is 3x of Grunenthal’s Oct’18 acquisition of Vimovo EU rights (ex-US and ex-JP).
Further more, the model also shows that if Consensi would be sold at just the same price of discounted generics at $0.3719/pill, the US deal alone is worth $3.35/sh or $5.04/sh with CN+SK in total! (Case included in spreadsheet)
+++
In November 2017, Coeptis Pharmaceuticals signed a Multi-product Co-development Agreement with Ciron including manufacturing, with initial value of above $100M sales.
Hence they probably use them for Consensi CMC as well. Quite a well connected growing pharma biz.
+++
.. and then, since ordinary shares are qualified to be bought by TA-Biomed index ETF and no further action or selection is required, see https://www.tase.co.il/en/market_data/index/167/about
TA-Biomed is also recovering well from steep decline since Sep’18
+++
- Priced below Consensi Approval and NT219 Ownership
- Priced at FDA refuted Consensi data falsification allegations on July’17 $1.27/sh
- Consensi: SP $6.83 floor – $14.97 expected for China + Korea
- Consensi: SP $13.50 floor – $29.57 expected for US -> $20.33 – $44.55 total
- Consensi: Evaluating additional commercialization agreements in major markets worldwide (PR 2019-01-03).
- Changshan paid $1M (May’18) and will pay additional $2.5M for regulatory and up to $6M for commercial milestones
- Changshan in CFDA process, which is a formality lately, expected until May 2019.
- Changshan & Korea 12% Net Sales Royalties -> 9% Gross Sales Royalties.
- US Coeptis 40-60% Net Profit Royalties -> 22.50% Gross Sales Royalties.
- NT219: $30M or $1.15/sh minimum should be added here as well.
- 2018-11-13 Slides: NT219 Favorable FDA response pre-IND, IND in 2019 w/ partners (solid prelim interest in NT219)
- 2018-11-13 Slides: NT219 One more patent expected.
- 2018-06-19 HC Wainwright last Buy PT $12.50/ads
- 2018-06-01 Last offering 3.26M @ $2.50/ads
- FDA Exclusivity until 2021-05-31
- U.S. Patent 9,408,837: Filed 2011-02-14; Granted 2016-08-09; Term until 2031-02-14
- U.S. Patent 9,662,315: Filed 2015-11-10; Granted 2017-05-30; Term until 2035-11-10
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