That sounds reasonable given:
—September statements that they can achieve $20mm through their trade finance arrangements
—New multi-product orders they think they can fulfill at ~$1mm/month (I read this new order as less risky / doubtful, as some backlog has been around for quite some time now)
If I am asking myself what seems to be a reasonable number, to your point, this particular target is simple back-of-the-napkin math: of the $20mm divided by outstanding shares and you're at that price level, assuming that this new contract is joined with some fulfillment of the backlog. That price, though, would not take into account at least two different and important questions: 1. can they service contracts at the level required for utilization of their trade financing capacity? and 2. how quickly can they collect receivables and recycle their trade financing as working capital in a single fiscal year?
Importantly, valuation in my experience (from private markets, not public) is something always discussed and thought about in terms of growth rates. Demonstrated growth, not "trust me bro - it's heading to the moon" promises and pro formas. If/when we get some decent execution against what we've been told I personally believe markets will reprice accordingly.
My point of view is that the 10K will reveal much to the market about their execution to date and give a sense of time horizon to achieve capacity on the trade financing we know about. My hope is that they can move product relatively quickly and turn that financing efficiently, but being essentially a new company, that's more optimism than a scenario I would deem likely just yet. I can concoct all sorts of scenarios where the numbers get really interesting really quickly, but I prefer to think within the confines of what we know for sure. My hypothesis is that the market will price VRUS based on their efficiency of their trade financing to date (and of course any new unknown developments would be in addition to that).
Assuming we start clocking some material increases to revenue and meeting stated goals I'll be much happier to think about reasonable growth expectations for the mid term and what price levels that could bring.
Disclaimer: I'm not an investment advisor. You should not make any financial decision based on my opinions. And probably not anyone else's.
