The New CS Board

[ahimsak]

Checked historical records I keep on volatility.

I measure the interday swings daily and run a 21dma for it also.

It is currently around 2.6%. It has above 2.4% or higher 12 times since the crash of 1987 ( I have kept a daily spx since 1986) It got a lot higher than that in the correction that started in 2000 and 2007 (about half the high readings in past 30 years are in those corrections)

The last time it was higher than 2.6% was in the corrections in 2010 and 2011.

So as scary as this correction has been it is not as "bad" in some ways as those corrections, although it has been a bigger drop than those.

Bottom line: IF the govt shutdown was not happening, and if the tax bill was not going to hurt the economy big time this year, and if the fed was not still tightening, and most of all, IF there was no trade war with out biggest trading nation, then I would not worry about this correction.

However, although the economy is "ok" for now, IMHO by the summer of 2019 we will be in a recession.