Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[frrol]

If a potential deal is on the table (and I'm going to get back to that "If"), then management will take it, and it will be the best that they can get under the circumstances. The terms of that deal are unknowable, but it is reasonable to assume it will include all development costs for B OM and IBD. It is unreasonable assume any other upfront funds that could be channeled to opex or any other development. It might, and management almost certainly negotiated for that, but you can't count on it. If it does, that is considered an upfront payment on future prospective royalties (ie, front-end) and would be taken out of our future royalty rate (the back-end); nothing is free. But this would almost certainly be the deal we sought.

The "If" is very real. The BP has to be comfortable with the FDA requiring us to re-do the qw (once weekly) arm. Not because of the expense (that is marginal) but because the FDA has made clear that they think B OM is no breakthrough yet. That's not a clear deal killer, but we don't know what the BP's requirements were. Personally, I think that as long as we got the greenlight for B-OM phase 3, the BP was likely satisfied. They've had many months to pour over the OM and IBD data. Their DD should be done, and the FDA has spoken. I'm betting on a deal. I'm looking for any sign of the term sheet being still in place, negotiations being finalized, or of course announcement of a signed deal. Would love to see it include B-derma. (ABX is even more of a stretch.)

About your immediate price targets, I'll just say they're higher than mine and that I'm comfortable counting eggs here but not chickens. I'll have a better idea if we get deal terms.