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Saturday, December 29, 2018 10:42:07 AM
Market Weekend Update - Short Term
By: Tony Caldaro | December 29, 2018
When considering everything previously noted. It is possible that the next selloff could not only end the bear markets internationally, but also in the US. At the beginning of the bear market we expected a short one of about 15%-20%. So far it has held within those parameters. We had thought that SPX 2400 would be the maximum downside. We got that wrong as the SPX has already hit 2347.
We see two potential support levels for the next, and maybe last, selloff. SPX 2310 C = 1.5 A, and SPX 2270 C = 1.62 A. The DOW C wave would have a 1.62 relationship to A around the SPX 2310. While is no pivot at SPX 2310, there is one at SPX 2321, 2286 and 2270. Also if the potentially last selloff is not too severe many positive divergences would be set up in the daily and weekly charts, with oversold monthly charts. These typically work to end downtrends and bear markets. We added some charts to the very end of stock charts to display how oversold the major indices really are. Here’s one.
The rally from the downtrend low at SPX 2347 looks corrective. We have observed three waves up (2414-2394-2468), three waves down (2414-2444-2398), then three waves up (2508-2473-2520). Notice the two rallies are nearly equal at 121/122 points. Symmetry. After the high the market setup a double negative divergence on the hourly chart and the SPX dropped to 2477. So the second set of three waves is complete. Will we get a third set next week? Or does the market head down from there? Short term support ended at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 and 2575 pivots. Short term momentum dropped to neutral after the double negative divergence. Best to your trading in the NY.
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By: Tony Caldaro | December 29, 2018
When considering everything previously noted. It is possible that the next selloff could not only end the bear markets internationally, but also in the US. At the beginning of the bear market we expected a short one of about 15%-20%. So far it has held within those parameters. We had thought that SPX 2400 would be the maximum downside. We got that wrong as the SPX has already hit 2347.
We see two potential support levels for the next, and maybe last, selloff. SPX 2310 C = 1.5 A, and SPX 2270 C = 1.62 A. The DOW C wave would have a 1.62 relationship to A around the SPX 2310. While is no pivot at SPX 2310, there is one at SPX 2321, 2286 and 2270. Also if the potentially last selloff is not too severe many positive divergences would be set up in the daily and weekly charts, with oversold monthly charts. These typically work to end downtrends and bear markets. We added some charts to the very end of stock charts to display how oversold the major indices really are. Here’s one.
The rally from the downtrend low at SPX 2347 looks corrective. We have observed three waves up (2414-2394-2468), three waves down (2414-2444-2398), then three waves up (2508-2473-2520). Notice the two rallies are nearly equal at 121/122 points. Symmetry. After the high the market setup a double negative divergence on the hourly chart and the SPX dropped to 2477. So the second set of three waves is complete. Will we get a third set next week? Or does the market head down from there? Short term support ended at the 2479 and 2456 pivots, with resistance at the 2525 and 2575 pivots. Short term momentum dropped to neutral after the double negative divergence. Best to your trading in the NY.
Read Full Story »»»
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
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