Bottom line - there is only one viable option due to cargo limitations and costs of BEV. Total cost of ownership is less than diesel with current incentives.
I encourage you to take the time to read this study and come to your own conclusion.
I did, and bought the stock as a result.
I believe that hydrogen will be the ultimate winner, but that is a start over scenario including infrastructure and way down the road (not even considered as currently feasible in this study) NG is the only feasible option for the ports and the CAAP. They will not wait for H2 to develop and fleet operators will not take the risks associated with BEV IMO.
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“Figure 13 summarizes the results of the cost of ownership analysis. The costs are reported in current 2018 dollars on a net present value (NPV) basis using a 7% real discount rate.110 As shown, the cost of ownership for a new diesel truck with an average annual activity of 68,383 miles over a 12-year service life is approximately $598,000. Near-zero natural gas truck costs are estimated to be $625,000,within 5% of the total cost of ownership of a new diesel truck, and could be considered cost-competitive with new diesel trucks at the fuel price spreads assumed in this analysis. Battery-electric truck cost of ownership depends on the location where the truck charges, as this determines the utility rate. Within SCE territory, the current battery-electric truck is estimated to cost $799,000 over 12 years, about $201,000 more expensive than new diesel trucks. A BATS-compliant battery-electric truck is estimated to have a cost of ownership of $1.06 million, $463,000 greater than that of a new diesel truck due to the high capital cost of the larger battery. Within LADWP territory, the current battery-electric truck is approximately $620,000 more expensive and a BATS-compliant truck is $583,000 more expensive than a new diesel truck.
When incentives are included in the analysis, all three alternative platforms are less expensive than diesel trucks over the 12-year analysis period. Natural gas trucks receive a $45,000 initial purchase incentive through HVIP and associated finance cost reductions for the balance of the truck purchase price. These trucks would also generate an estimated $124,000 in LCFS credit revenue. However, because these trucks are assumed to refuel at commercial fueling facilities, the value of the LCFS credit is assumed to be accounted for in the pump price and consumed by the fuel provider to source RNG. Electric trucks receive a $165,000 purchase incentive through HVIP and generate $373,000 in LCFS credits over 12 years. The combined effect of these two very large incentives is to make the total cost of the battery-electric trucks substantially less than baseline diesel trucks.”
"A man doesn't know what he knows until he knows what he doesn't know"
