Cytodyn Inc (CYDY)

[finesand]

misiu - for me it is not news, i.e. expected dilution

for others, not following, it might be massive.

A17 also expected this for sure, since he is following.

Our last valuation from Sep'18 put 580M or 620M OS
on that line, resulting around $5 per share with breast cancer,
which only marks like $157M mcap w/ 80% discount at this early stage.

One thing for sure, the very lofty PTs are off the table now
and a (buyout) partner still paying the appropriate price but the ship is getting heavy here. So momentum might last for longer.

Still seeing $523M for Combo + $3.3B for Mono roughly on a relative high P/E 15.
Well the market is horrible lately and everything possible is being sold off, debt or no debt, profits or no profits.
Sure, lots of debt and no profits are currently the most suffering candidates.

Alternatively at this point, CYDY cold make a premium offer to Warrant holders. A bold move showing confidence of the next moves, offering maybe a 55-60c strike for 50% of held Warrants.
Something like a rights offering at premium, knowing you couldn't purchase that much this low before the turnaround news.
I have seen many trying this strategy, for some it works.

Biotech is back to 1Q17 valuations, see XBI and IBB.

EDIT: So the $5 at P/E 15 -> $3 P/E 10 or $1.8B these days might be the limit. But all this depends on partner and hype. Today we have nothing yet.