Southwestern Energy Company (SWN)

[eatabagpumpers]

You are definitely not a rocket scientist if you feel it has a better chance going back to $4.50. Because there's a better chance that you are actually a rocket scientist than that happening. Hedge pricing means they aren't taking advantage of current pricing (which is sinking again although it will be back to $4.50 this winter sometime). Also their assets suck a donkey. Appalachian ng assets in general are capital intensive. Plus the debt.

Idiots like to say deeeerrrrr FrEe CaSh FloW, but FCF ain't profit and SWN will never ever ever ever turn one more than a few cents for a given quarter. Ever.

On top of that, they don't do dividend. So smart money isn't headed their way. KMI and ENB (while not producers and also with high debt) are much better plays except for Aspie Kids trying to get paid and buy a Camaro on the hopes and dreams of shitty companies like SWN.

Did I mention how bad their management is? All ponzi smoke and mirrors. Which I guess doesn't really make them bad, but it does make them bad for investors.

I would say the chances it goes back to $4.50 ever is about 50% and the changes it goes to $4.50 before $2.50 at about 20%. I'm pulling those numbers out of my butt but I follow NG closely and it feels about right.

Lastly, we're in a down market and energy is an ugly red headed step child right now. And that ain't changing. People like sexy shit they understand because people are generally stoooopid. They don't get energy and would rather jump on the momentum train for tech stocks (although even that aint working right now).

So, in summary, SWN is shit.