Cannabis Investment Club

[CornellEngineer]

I took a quick look at the S&P 500 put options not too long ago. They seemed a bit expensive to me but I didn't analyze them that closely.

I tried a play like this back around 2006...turned out to be a couple years too early but probably woulda made $200K to $300K if I had timed it a little better. That was on a gamble of only $3-5K if I recall. That's how bad the crash was. Even super cheap deep out-of-the-money puts ended up being in-the-money with each contract winding up being worth a small fortune and I was sitting on a mountain of them.

Not gonna do anything that risky this time since it's my father's money and not mine. I'm looking at puts on individual stocks rather than market indices for this go-around...they can be had for less and will pay off just as well. Just to give you a rough idea what we could be looking at the DJIA and many stocks lost about 1/3 of their value in just 3 or 4 months back in 2008. And the double dip back in 2001-2002 wasn't any better.

This article was from back in April when we were sitting at a low coming off the January high...just like we're now sitting at a similar low coming off a similar high in October...

'Just Around the Bend': This Is When the Stock Market Will Crash, According to 5 Famous Investors

http://time.com/money/5235032/just-around-the-bend-this-is-when-the-stock-market-will-crash-according-to-5-famous-investors/

Last time I was 2 years too early...hope to hell this time I am not a few days too late! Right now given where we're sitting it could easily go either way from here...a nice rebound back to over 25000 or thereabouts and everybody has a nice Christmas while being lulled into a false sense of security...or investors have a miserable holiday season.

I'm focusing mostly on April puts and if we miss I may reload for a second round on ones for around July depending on how things are looking when the April options expire. The bulls & the bears are locked in a death match right now. The bulls won Round 1 back in March-April but I'm betting the bears win this one. Best of luck whatever you decide to do, J.