Hmm, this news is definitely a gut punch and surprising. I don't think it's reasonable to jump to any significant conclusions based on the 8K. I do feel we should get an explanation from management about what the heck is going on.
Per specific points in discussion since last night:
1) NEO efficacy data must be bad. I don't know about this one at all. As far as we know, only one patient has been dosed. There is not enough time/patients to determine whether there is any efficacy. "Negative" results are not meaningful at this juncture.
2) NEO is not safe. If that's the case, then we would have heard about a trial shutdown. I don't think this is likely.
3) Manufacturing concerns. Hard to imagine that AMGN, with its pockets and expertise, could not help get this resolved, given the potential of neo-epitopes
4) AMGN was angry about ADXS developing HOT. Possible, but it would be jumping to conclusions that I don't feel are warranted. Perhaps there was a conversation that sparked the divorce that we're not privy to. But looking at this as your hope for continuing progress is a long shot at this time, I think, considering we don't know whether NEO or HOT work.
What I'm not seeing discussed much is how AMGN has been positioning itself lately. As someone mentioned, we lost our liaison with AMGN, which did not bode well for this program. The explanation could be as simple as AMGN has decided not to go the cell therapy route for immunotherapy, and they're cutting ties with that sooner rather than later. After all, they have their own immunotherapy programs and have demonstrated no other interest in cell-based approaches.
It could just be a change in their priorities.
5) This is an unfortunate closing of one route toward getting the cash position under control. However, it seems clear now that milestones were not imminent, anyway.
6) It's distantly possible that this is the workup to a bigger partnership or a buyout from a different entity. However, that doesn't hold too much water, because these big pharmas buy companies all the time while they have active partnerships. It doesn't seem to affect things much, indicating that this was probably Amgen's decision, full stop.
Overall, this is bad news, but not catastrophic. Possibly it's a prelude to a far-ranging partnership with someone else, but I'm not comfortable counting on that. I'll continue to hold, at least for now.
