OPTIONS TRADERS CO-OP

[gdl]

Wish I could play this here but I have some nagging suspicions.

1 - Since start of October all retraces from steep drops have occurred in less time than the original fall. If this trend is to hold true we have till middle of tomorrow before it exceeds the last steep drop in time.
That might suggest we have hit a bottom. We also have a very important glaring 270 target that MUST be breached in this current up trend.

2 - this is so far the worse December in a very long time. Any drop back to the 263 level going forward should be a huge warning sign.

3 - Even in bad Decembers we almost always have some sort of late month rally.

4 - All recent rebounds off steep drops have occurred at or below the 38.2% range. A move above 270 would push the retrace ABOVE.

5 - FED meeting can be very volatile and can be the excuse needed to set off fast moves. That's on the 18th.

6 - Both the dollar index and the 10 year note have NOT broken down technically. This despite the stock market wild swings. Strong dollar and yields at or above 3 percent on 10 year note is a problem going forward.

So far the rally is whats expected for a recovery out of this down trend BUT it has to break 2700 and continue higher by the close of trading tomorrow. Odds right now favor a recovery. I however will not yet get on board. Stubborn? maybe. Something just doesn't sit right with me yet.

My rants and thoughts displayed here. Hope to review my mistakes in a weeks time to see what i missed in my evaluation.