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The seven options facing Theresa May now Brexit vote has been delayed – and which one is most likely

Daniel Capurro 11 DECEMBER 2018 • 12:48PM
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/11/seven-options-facing-theresa-may-now-brexit-vote-has-delayed/

In the face of a catastrophically large and potentially fatal Parliamentary defeat, Theresa May has pulled the Brexit vote until further notice. While she didn’t expect to win at the first attempt, there was hope that the defeat would be small enough to have another attempt. MPs are most upset about the commitment in the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement to a Northern Irish backstop that would keep the UK in a customs union with the EU with no exit mechanism or time limit, but Mrs May and her team believed a combination of time pressure and a fear of no deal would win her the day.

With the number of MPs publicly opposed to her deal well into three figures, the Prime Minister has been forced to reconsider her options. So what are they, are where can she go next?

Option 1: Get more from Europe

Mrs May is on a whistlestop tour of Europe, including a trip to Berlin to meet with Angela Merkel, in the hope of securing the concessions she needs to win back her MPs. She told the Commons yesterday that she would seek a “legally-binding commitment” that the Northern Ireland backstop would not be permanent.

The chances of that working look pretty slim. Jean Claude-Juncker, the President of the European Commission, summed up the EU position in the European Parliament when he said: "There is no room whatsoever for renegotiation, but of course there is room if used intelligently, there is room enough to give further clarifications and further interpretations without opening the Withdrawal Agreement”.

The room to be “used intelligently” effectively means warm words and non-binding statements probably attached to the Political Declaration on the future relationship. As Peter Foster, our Europe editor explains, the strongest thing Mrs May might get is “for the European Commission’s Legal Service to make a statement, or draft an addendum to the Political Declaration, saying that Article 50 is the legal basis for the EU-UK divorce treaty, and can therefore only work as a “bridge” to the future, not a permanent solution.”

That, however, would not be allowed to undermine the functioning of the backstop. Jacob Rees-Mogg, chairman of the Brexiteer European Research Group, has already said this won’t be enough. He told Newsnight on Monday: “Warm words from Brussels will be rejected by Parliament. This deal will not go through.”

Likelihood of May attempting it: 7/7

Probability of success: 2/7

Option 2: Run down the clock

Downing Street will know the limitations of what the PM can secure in her “renegotiation”. That’s why the suspicion in Westminster is that Mrs May is simply trying to run down the clock.

While MPs must be given a meaningful vote on the deal, there is nothing in the law that says when exactly that vote must take place. So in theory, the Government could delay right up until March 28, although doing so would cause knock-on delays (more on that later). More realistically, the vote could certainly be delayed until mid-January.

Nevertheless, the longer that the PM can hold-off on a vote the more likely a no deal Brexit becomes. The majority of MPs in all parties are terrified of the chaos that would cause. Michael Gove, the Environment Secretary, is reported, for example, to have been warned about shortages of clean drinking water owing to disruption to chemical supplies from the Continent.

There is a majority against no deal in the Commons, but MPs would need enough time to organise and find a way of blocking no deal. If things get too close for comfort, they might cave and see the deal on the table as the safest option. In such a situation, Mrs May would almost certainly be relying on Labour MPs to get her deal through, which would be highly damaging to party unity.

Likelihood of May attempting it: 6/7

Probability of success: 3.5/7


Option 3: Offer a timetable for her resignation

This is a left-field option and there is no indication that it is being considered at all in Downing Street. However, there is an argument in Westminster that if Mrs May were to make clear that she will resign as PM once the Withdrawal Agreement is safely through the Commons, it might win over enough doubters.

This is based on two ideas. The first is that Mrs May is hugely unpopular as a leader after the disastrous 2017 election, and that, while she was only allowed to stay on because of the need for stability during the Brexit negotiations, MPs fear she would be strengthened by securing Brexit and so try to carry on.

The second is that it is Mrs May’s vision for the future relationship (aka the plan formerly known as Chequers) which is the truly unpopular bit. Now that she has secured the Withdrawal Agreement she should be allowed to see it through Parliament and then hand off to a true Brexiteer to negotiate the future relationship.

This idea has lost a lot of its strength now that it is clear that Britain will be bound to the Irish backstop until the EU agrees to end it. True, the backstop should only kick in if trade talks fail, but many Brexiteer MPs don’t trust the EU to act in good faith. It might not matter though – Juliet Samuel argues here that the Withdrawal Agreement is weak enough for a new PM to get around it.

Likelihood of May attempting it: 1/7

Probability of success: 4/7

Option 4: Look for a Plan B

There are three major Plan Bs floating around Parliament. The Prime Minister might choose to throw her weight behind one of them if she suffers a significant but not fatal defeat in the Commons. Or, she might be deposed by a new leader who backs one.

“Managed” no deal
The option backed by hardline Brexiteers. This holds that if the EU won’t budge on the backstop then Britain should simply opt for no deal, but cough up billions of pounds to secure a short transition and pay for a piecemeal set of micro-deals based around what has already been agreed for areas such as aviation. This plan is reliant on the EU playing ball, which may well be unlikely if Britain has just torn up the Withdrawal Agreement after 19 months of negotiation. There is also no majority for this approach in the Commons and MPs would attempt to block the necessary legislation.

Likelihood of May attempting it: 2/7

Probability of success: 0/7

Norway plus

This is an option backed by a group of soft-Brexit and Remain backing MPs. It involves opting for the off-the-shelf Efta/EEA deal which Norway already has and then adding a customs union to it to avoid a hard border in Ireland. Originally proposed as a “Norway for now” option, it’s proponents, led by Nick Boles, have subsequently admitted that the UK would only be allowed to join Efta on a permanent basis. This Brexit would infuriate hardline eurosceptics because it would mean no independent trade policy for the UK and it may well anger the much of the Leave voting public because it provides very limited controls on immigration and retains freedom of movement.

There have been reports that Cabinet ministers including Amber Rudd and Michael Gove have been considering it as a Plan B if Mrs May’s deal fails.

Likelihood of May attempting it: 3/7

Probability of success: 4/7

A second referendum

While a handful of MPs might consider just ditching Brexit altogether, few people think it would be either legitimate or a good idea for Parliament to simply cancel leaving of its own volition. Instead, many MPs now back a second referendum, or as they call it a “People’s Vote” (they argue it’s not a second referendum because the vote is on something different). Allies of the Prime Minister who have been scoping out the Commons believe that a second referendum is the most likely plan to secure a majority among MPs.

The idea has received a boost in recent weeks, with several ministers, most notably Jo Johnson, resigning in order to back the idea. Meanwhile, the European Court of Justice ruled on Monday that the UK could unilaterally revoke Article 50. This means no worries about being forced to pay a price, such as losing the rebate, for staying in.

The big flaw in this plan is that there’s a perfectly good chance that the British people would vote for no deal instead. Polling suggests a small move towards Remain among the public, but it hardly represents a landslide switch. Plenty of MPs are also deeply worried by the potential damage to the legitimacy of Parliament of calling a second referendum to get “the right” answer from the public.

Mrs May might, however, choose to back a second referendum if it included her deal as an option. But she would struggle to find many MPs or ministers willing to campaign for her deal, and if no deal wasn't on the ballot, she would be accused of betraying the public.

Likelihood of May attempting it: 4/7

Probability of success (for May's deal): 0/7

A referendum on May's deal

An idea apparently being scoped out by allies of the Prime Minister is to have a second referendum but with only the existing deal and no deal on the ballot. However, there would be almost zero backing in Parliament for what would look like a rather cynical move by Downing Street. That the idea has made it the press is probably an indicator of Downing Street trying to scare Remain-leaning MPs away from backing a new vote.

Likelihood of May attempting it: 5/7

Probability of success: 0/7

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2018/12/11/seven-options-facing-theresa-may-now-brexit-vote-has-delayed/