Triple 000 and Sub-penny Chart Plays

[trader53]

S&P 500 - for Tuesday, December 11, 2018




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https://caldaro.wordpress.com/

Weekend Update

Posted on December 8, 2018

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The Kick-Off Months in the OTC - Jan/Feb - Jun/Jul

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=137701925

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LONG TERM: Downtrend

A New Bull Market - Primary III Underway


Since the October top
the SPX has dropped 300,
rallied 200,
dropped 200,
rallied 200,
then dropped 200 again.

After the initial drop,
just a big trading range
between 2600 and 2800


The market continues to generally track
as expected.

After a five wave bull market,
with a subdividing third wave,
from SPX 1810 to SPX 2941,
the market reversed and appears to be
in a potentially short-lived bear market.

Our long term SPX count remains the same.

Five Intermediate waves up,
with a subdividing third wave,
from early-2016 to late-2018
to complete a Major wave 1 bull market
(1810-2941).

After that high
the market entered what we suspect
will be a short-lived Major wave 2 bear market,
with a possible loss of 15% to 20%.

The first decline of this bear market
bottomed in October at SPX 2604.

After the expected
Major wave 2 Bear Market ends,
the Primary III Secular Bull Market will resume.


https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/12/08/weekend-update-681/

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/11/24/weekend-update-679/

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/11/17/weekend-update-678/

https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/11/10/weekend-update-677/


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In January 2018,

Intermediate wave iii,
(Minor wave 5)
counting it as Major wave 1 completed,

and an Intermediate wave iv correction began.



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Since we are expecting a three wave bear market
we are labeling the first decline
as Intermediate wave A,
and the current rally as Intermediate wave B.

Intermediate wave C should naturally follow
once this rally/uptrend concludes.

During the C
we are expecting the SPX
to break through the recent lows
with a maximum downside target
around SPX 2400 (green line).

After that
the next bull market should begin.

Keep in mind
we are in a Secular generational bull market,
and we are not expecting it to top
until the early 2030’s.





MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues

This bear market started off simple enough:

a zigzag down to SPX 2604,

then an a-b-c rally to SPX 2815.


After that it has been a mess to count:

-200, +200, -200, +100, -100.

But Friday appears to have cleared it all up.

What it looks like we are dealing with
is an Intermediate wave A
taking the form of a double zigzag.

First
a Minor A zigzag SPX 2941-2603,

then
Minor B to SPX 2815,

now a
Minor C zigzag to SPX 2622 thus far.

It’s been quite choppy and volatile
just like a bear market.





Since Minor A dropped 337 points,
Minor C
should have some Fibonacci relationship to A
before it ends.

We see four possibilities:

SPX 2607 (0.618),

SPX 2577 (0.707),

SPX 2550 (0.786)

and

SPX 2478 (equal).

Two of these four fall within OEW pivots:
2577 and 2478

Too early to tell which is likely to work out.

But with all the political problems out there,
(US, China, Italy, France, and the UK),
any of these levels are possible.






SHORT TERM:

Trying to track this market
with short term waves
has been a near impossible task.

At times this market just seems to bounce
between OEW pivots
with no identifiable pattern.

Minute wave C,
of Minor C,
had

7 waves down to SPX 2622,

7 waves up to SPX 2709,

and now

5 waves down to SPX 2631,

(2643-2665-2623-2650-2631).

Another 7 wave pattern in the making ?

Hopefully
we will see the end of this downtrend soon.

Then we could get a good counter rally uptrend
for a while.

It will be interesting to see
how it all unfolds.


Best to your trading!

Trade what’s in front of you!

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S&P 500 - Futures Charts (Daily)



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In March 2009 the great recession and SC2 ended.

From that low a new 70-80 year SC3 began.

The first bull market of SC3 was 2009-2015,
and first bear market 2015-2016.

We have labeled them as Primary waves I and II.

The bull market currently underway
is part of Primary III.

We are counting it as Major wave 1









Since 1929 there have been 13 bull markets
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116564037

LONG TERM: uptrend

This week let’s look at the big picture.
The very big picture.

While published data on the US stock market
only began in the year 1885,
we have been able to piece together,
using secular Saeculum cycles and economic cycles,
how the US market would have looked
from the early 1700’s.

As an emerging growth economy
the US would have not looked anything like
the European markets
that do have stock market data going back that far.
That data was not considered.

From around the year 1700 to 1929
the US experienced a 200+ year
grand super cycle bull market GSC 1

The 1929-1932 crash,
when the stock market lost nearly 90% of its value,
ended GSC 2

While short in time
the crash made up for it in price damage.

A GSC 3 bull market began at that 1932 low.

Within GSC 1 there were five super cycles, approximately:
SC1 1700-1770
SC2 1770-1776
SC3 1776-1850
SC4 1850-1857
SC5 1857-1929

Within the current GSC 3
there have been two completed super cycles,
with the third underway:
SC1 1932-2007
SC2 2007-2009
SC3 2009-xxxx

Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years,
this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080.

Within each super cycle bull market
there are five Cycle waves.

SC1 of GSC 3 divided as follows:
C1 1932-1937
C2 1937-1942
C3 1942-1973
C4 1973-1974
C5 1974-2007

Notice the Cycle wave bull markets
can be as short as 5 years or as long as 30+ years.

Also note, no matter the wave degree
the bear markets are always much shorter in time
than the bull markets.

Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years,
this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080.




http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83822707561

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43140782454

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=d1