Tuesday, December 11, 2018 2:41:46 AM
S&P 500 - for Tuesday, December 11, 2018
_________________________________________________________________
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/
Weekend Update
Posted on December 8, 2018
_________________________________________________________________
The Kick-Off Months in the OTC - Jan/Feb - Jun/Jul
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=137701925
____________________________________________________________
LONG TERM: Downtrend
A New Bull Market - Primary III Underway
Since the October top
the SPX has dropped 300,
rallied 200,
dropped 200,
rallied 200,
then dropped 200 again.
After the initial drop,
just a big trading range
between 2600 and 2800
The market continues to generally track
as expected.
After a five wave bull market,
with a subdividing third wave,
from SPX 1810 to SPX 2941,
the market reversed and appears to be
in a potentially short-lived bear market.
Our long term SPX count remains the same.
Five Intermediate waves up,
with a subdividing third wave,
from early-2016 to late-2018
to complete a Major wave 1 bull market
(1810-2941).
After that high
the market entered what we suspect
will be a short-lived Major wave 2 bear market,
with a possible loss of 15% to 20%.
The first decline of this bear market
bottomed in October at SPX 2604.
After the expected
Major wave 2 Bear Market ends,
the Primary III Secular Bull Market will resume.
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/12/08/weekend-update-681/
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/11/24/weekend-update-679/
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/11/17/weekend-update-678/
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/11/10/weekend-update-677/
_________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
In January 2018,
Intermediate wave iii,
(Minor wave 5)
counting it as Major wave 1 completed,
and an Intermediate wave iv correction began.
___________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
Since we are expecting a three wave bear market
we are labeling the first decline
as Intermediate wave A,
and the current rally as Intermediate wave B.
Intermediate wave C should naturally follow
once this rally/uptrend concludes.
During the C
we are expecting the SPX
to break through the recent lows
with a maximum downside target
around SPX 2400 (green line).
After that
the next bull market should begin.
Keep in mind
we are in a Secular generational bull market,
and we are not expecting it to top
until the early 2030’s.
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues
This bear market started off simple enough:
a zigzag down to SPX 2604,
then an a-b-c rally to SPX 2815.
After that it has been a mess to count:
-200, +200, -200, +100, -100.
But Friday appears to have cleared it all up.
What it looks like we are dealing with
is an Intermediate wave A
taking the form of a double zigzag.
First
a Minor A zigzag SPX 2941-2603,
then
Minor B to SPX 2815,
now a
Minor C zigzag to SPX 2622 thus far.
It’s been quite choppy and volatile
just like a bear market.
Since Minor A dropped 337 points,
Minor C
should have some Fibonacci relationship to A
before it ends.
We see four possibilities:
SPX 2607 (0.618),
SPX 2577 (0.707),
SPX 2550 (0.786)
and
SPX 2478 (equal).
Two of these four fall within OEW pivots:
2577 and 2478
Too early to tell which is likely to work out.
But with all the political problems out there,
(US, China, Italy, France, and the UK),
any of these levels are possible.
SHORT TERM:
Trying to track this market
with short term waves
has been a near impossible task.
At times this market just seems to bounce
between OEW pivots
with no identifiable pattern.
Minute wave C,
of Minor C,
had
7 waves down to SPX 2622,
7 waves up to SPX 2709,
and now
5 waves down to SPX 2631,
(2643-2665-2623-2650-2631).
Another 7 wave pattern in the making ?
Hopefully
we will see the end of this downtrend soon.
Then we could get a good counter rally uptrend
for a while.
It will be interesting to see
how it all unfolds.
Best to your trading!
Trade what’s in front of you!
_______________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
USD - Futures Charts (Hourly)
GOLD - Futures Charts (Hourly)
S&P 500 - Futures Charts (Hourly)
________________________________________________________________
USD - Futures Charts (Daily)
GOLD - Futures Charts (Daily)
S&P 500 - Futures Charts (Daily)
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
In March 2009 the great recession and SC2 ended.
From that low a new 70-80 year SC3 began.
The first bull market of SC3 was 2009-2015,
and first bear market 2015-2016.
We have labeled them as Primary waves I and II.
The bull market currently underway
is part of Primary III.
We are counting it as Major wave 1
Since 1929 there have been 13 bull markets
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116564037
Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years,
this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83822707561
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43140782454
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=d1
_________________________________________________________________
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/
Weekend Update
Posted on December 8, 2018
_________________________________________________________________
The Kick-Off Months in the OTC - Jan/Feb - Jun/Jul
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=137701925
____________________________________________________________
LONG TERM: Downtrend
A New Bull Market - Primary III Underway
Since the October top
the SPX has dropped 300,
rallied 200,
dropped 200,
rallied 200,
then dropped 200 again.
After the initial drop,
just a big trading range
between 2600 and 2800
The market continues to generally track
as expected.
After a five wave bull market,
with a subdividing third wave,
from SPX 1810 to SPX 2941,
the market reversed and appears to be
in a potentially short-lived bear market.
Our long term SPX count remains the same.
Five Intermediate waves up,
with a subdividing third wave,
from early-2016 to late-2018
to complete a Major wave 1 bull market
(1810-2941).
After that high
the market entered what we suspect
will be a short-lived Major wave 2 bear market,
with a possible loss of 15% to 20%.
The first decline of this bear market
bottomed in October at SPX 2604.
After the expected
Major wave 2 Bear Market ends,
the Primary III Secular Bull Market will resume.
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/12/08/weekend-update-681/
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/11/24/weekend-update-679/
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/11/17/weekend-update-678/
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2018/11/10/weekend-update-677/
_________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
In January 2018,
Intermediate wave iii,
(Minor wave 5)
counting it as Major wave 1 completed,
and an Intermediate wave iv correction began.
___________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________
Since we are expecting a three wave bear market
we are labeling the first decline
as Intermediate wave A,
and the current rally as Intermediate wave B.
Intermediate wave C should naturally follow
once this rally/uptrend concludes.
During the C
we are expecting the SPX
to break through the recent lows
with a maximum downside target
around SPX 2400 (green line).
After that
the next bull market should begin.
Keep in mind
we are in a Secular generational bull market,
and we are not expecting it to top
until the early 2030’s.
MEDIUM TERM: downtrend continues
This bear market started off simple enough:
a zigzag down to SPX 2604,
then an a-b-c rally to SPX 2815.
After that it has been a mess to count:
-200, +200, -200, +100, -100.
But Friday appears to have cleared it all up.
What it looks like we are dealing with
is an Intermediate wave A
taking the form of a double zigzag.
First
a Minor A zigzag SPX 2941-2603,
then
Minor B to SPX 2815,
now a
Minor C zigzag to SPX 2622 thus far.
It’s been quite choppy and volatile
just like a bear market.
Since Minor A dropped 337 points,
Minor C
should have some Fibonacci relationship to A
before it ends.
We see four possibilities:
SPX 2607 (0.618),
SPX 2577 (0.707),
SPX 2550 (0.786)
and
SPX 2478 (equal).
Two of these four fall within OEW pivots:
2577 and 2478
Too early to tell which is likely to work out.
But with all the political problems out there,
(US, China, Italy, France, and the UK),
any of these levels are possible.
SHORT TERM:
Trying to track this market
with short term waves
has been a near impossible task.
At times this market just seems to bounce
between OEW pivots
with no identifiable pattern.
Minute wave C,
of Minor C,
had
7 waves down to SPX 2622,
7 waves up to SPX 2709,
and now
5 waves down to SPX 2631,
(2643-2665-2623-2650-2631).
Another 7 wave pattern in the making ?
Hopefully
we will see the end of this downtrend soon.
Then we could get a good counter rally uptrend
for a while.
It will be interesting to see
how it all unfolds.
Best to your trading!
Trade what’s in front of you!
_______________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
USD - Futures Charts (Hourly)
GOLD - Futures Charts (Hourly)
S&P 500 - Futures Charts (Hourly)
________________________________________________________________
USD - Futures Charts (Daily)
GOLD - Futures Charts (Daily)
S&P 500 - Futures Charts (Daily)
________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
_________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________
In March 2009 the great recession and SC2 ended.
From that low a new 70-80 year SC3 began.
The first bull market of SC3 was 2009-2015,
and first bear market 2015-2016.
We have labeled them as Primary waves I and II.
The bull market currently underway
is part of Primary III.
We are counting it as Major wave 1
Since 1929 there have been 13 bull markets
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116564037
Since super cycle bull markets last 70+ years,
this SC3 is not likely to top until around the year 2080.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p83822707561
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p43140782454
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=d1
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