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INTERVIEW - Solar to Become Top Alternative Energy, Author Says

US: November 2, 2006


NEW YORK - Solar power will become economically viable and available to almost anyone in the next 10 to 15 years, Travis Bradford, a former corporate buyout specialist, says in his book "Solar Revolution."


Bradford left Wall Street three years ago to run Massachusetts-based Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development, which seeks to promote sustainable technologies.
Below are Bradford's answers to questions from Reuters:

Reuters: When will the shortage of refined silicon that has capped growth in solar panel construction ease?

Travis Bradford: First, by 2008 the amount of polysilicon available ... will double under the currently announced capacity expansions by large, reliable producers along with a couple of new entrants with deep experience in metallurgical grade silicon. Second, (solar) wafer and cell producers are spending considerable effort to use silicon more efficiently. These will increase cell production capacity faster than market demand will grow over the next few years, bringing the supply and demand back into balance.

Reuters: How does the boom in world population, expected to reach 10 billion by mid-century, favor solar power?

TB: Most of those people are going to be in the developing world, where their primary source of energy is still biomass ... in a lot of cases it's cutting down trees. When they can get industrial grade energy it's oil, coal and gasoline. So their economies are whipsawed by the price of fuel for what industrial capacity they have. There is another solution. The poorest nations of the world have amazing solar resources. To date, the problem has been the cost of the systems, they don't have the capital markets to pay for them. It's not like California where you can wrap (the cost) into your mortgage. As solar becomes more cost effective at its historic rate of 5 to 6 percent per year, then in 10 years it will be half of what it is today. In another 10 years it will be a quarter of today's price. You can imagine that a small household will then be able to afford a US$50, 30 Watt panel. That (will give them the ability) to charge their cell phone and play the radio.

Reuters: Why can't we import enough liquefied natural gas to provide all of our future power?

TB: Liquefied natural gas is an incredibly wasteful energy product and the capital needed to compress it and then decompress it and then transport it between those two points is a pretty expensive outlay. As much as a third of the energy in gas is used in just those processes, not including the transportation. Then there's a lot of risks related to explosions.

Reuters:Why do economies of scale -- meaning the more you make of it the cheaper it gets -- benefit solar more than other alternative energies?

TB: If you make larger wind farms or larger geothermal plants, these are all going to be helpful, but you still have to deal with the electricity infrastructure. The cost of utility power really isn't really in the generation. At least half, if not more, of the cost is in district transmission and distribution. There aren't going to be any more economies of scale in that. Whereas nearly 100 percent of the cost of solar (which can bypass the grid and provide direct power) is in the installed cost on the home and so the economics for solar can continue to improve from the point of view of the user.

Reuters: How can creative financing help solar power?

TB: Every major homebuilder is evaluating the inclusion of solar in new construction. (A) new California bill ... requires builders to offer solar as an option by 2012.

You can wrap the cost right into the mortgage. That's one of the reasons it's cheaper to put solar on homes than it is for businesses or utilities because the mortgage rate is lower as a cost of capital, and the you get the tax deductibility of home mortgage interest.

For retrofits on existing homes unfortunately people are not using creative financing enough. Most installers are not yet not sophisticated enough in the financing to be able to offer this service. Some of the manufacturers are beginning try to help them do that. My background as a New York finance guy makes me think some smart finance person is going to figure that out.

Reuters: Will the United States surpass Germany and Japan in solar installations?

TB:My guess is the US will have one of the fastest growth rates over next five years. One of the interesting things about the US when compared to other industrialized countries is that it has more sun per capita. It sits lower in latitude than Europe or Japan, and a lot of people in the people live in the South. Eventually the US would take over Germany and Japan as the world's biggest installer of solar energy.



REUTERS NEWS SERVICE
link:
http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/38793/story.htm