Gotta love a filly that's beaten the boys.
An inside look at horse racing’s Super Bowl
By Joe Kristufek
Daily Herald Handicapper
Posted Friday, November 03, 2006
On Saturday, the classiest thoroughbreds on the planet compete in the 23rd edition of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships.
This is the sixth time this Super Bowl of horse racing will be held at Churchill Downs, and some of the most memorable championship runs unfolded under the Twin Spires.
To name a just few: Arazi’s scintillating Juvenile win in 1991; the improbable Mile repeat for Da Hoss after racing only once the entire year in 1998; One Dreamer’s 47-1 wire win in the 1994 Distaff; Illinois-bred Buck’s Boy leading them all the way around in the 1998 Turf; and Black Tie Affair’s Classic victory of 1991.
Here’s a quick look at the high-profile favorites and improbable longshots:
Juvenile Fillies: None of the last four winners of this race have paid more than $7, but the last time the Cup was run at Churchill, Caressing dropped a 47-1 bomb.
Breeders' Cup Classic favorite Bernardini walks off the track with his exercise rider druing an eraly-morning workout Thursday. (Reuters)
I’ve tracked the progress of the Chicago filly Dreaming of Anna all season, but I’m picking her more with my head than my heart. In addition to being an amazing physical talent, she’s wise beyond her years, and composure plays a major role on Breeders’ Cup Day.
The rail post doesn’t thrill me, but with the short run into the first turn, it’s better than being stuck in an outside gate. I’m hoping jockey Rene Douglas is content to wait for the turn for home before he pushes the button.
My picks: No. 1 Dreaming of Anna (Hometown hero is really good). No. 3 Cash Included (Princess of Cali is dead fit ready). No. 6 Bel Air Beauty (Beware the live Polytracker).
Live longshots: No. 6 Bel Air Beauty (8-1), No. 10 Her Majesty (10-1) and No. 7 Cotton Blossom (10-1).
Juvenile: Three of the last seven winners of this race were bombers (Wilko at 28-1 in 2004, Action This Day at 26-1 in 2003, Anees at 30-1 in 1999), and the other four victors paid a square price.
Honestly, I had a tough time splitting my top eight selections. I like the way Chris Paasch has campaigned Principle Secret — two sprints, seven weeks off, then a route try against stakes company. Circular Quay may be the most naturally talented of these, but he has been his worst enemy at times. C P West has trained like a bear at Churchill, and he should relish the stretch out around two turns.
My picks: No. 6 Principle Secret (Learning his lessons well). No. 9 Circular Quay (Must learn the mental side of the game). No. 5 C P West (Begging for two turns).
Live longshots: No. 5 CæP West (15-1) and No. 1 Street Sense (20-1).
Filly and Mare Turf: Foreigners have dominated this race, and I don’t expect that to change. Ouija Board is the class of the field and deservedly will be the overwhelming favorite. She’s coming into this race better than she did last year.
Another Euro worth watching is Satwa Queen. She never has been better and should be ready to fire the best race of her career in the third start of the current form cycle.
My picks: No. 2 Ouija Board (Has held her own with the best). No. 9 Satwa Queen (Hasn’t reached her ceiling yet). No. 7 Wait a While (Best America has to offer in this division).
Live longshots: No. 9 Satwa Queen (12-1) and No. 8 My Typhoon (20-1).
Sprint: As expected, there’s no shortage of speed here.
Henny Hughes has been dominant in three starts but has yet to face adversity. War Front was no match for “Henny” in the Vosburgh, but I like his chances to turn the tables. He always has his game face on, and I expect him to display finishing punch in a race that has the potential to fall apart.
Thor’s Echo is another live longshot. He chased the speedy Bordanaro all the way around the track in the Ancient Title and settled for second in his race back following a spring trip to Dubai.
My picks: No. 10 War Front (Calm, cool and collected). No. 1 Thor’s Echo (Former router is now an exceptional sprinter). No. 4 Henny Hughes (The one to beat but not unbeatable).
Live longshots: No. 10 War Front (12-1), No. 1 Thor’s Echo (10-1) and No. 8 Pomeroy (8-1).
Mile: Rarely is there a defined favorite in this race, and such is the case this year. The toteboard could light up like a Christmas tree. I don’t visualize a suicidal pace, but it should be honest enough.
I’m looking for an improving horse with tactical speed and a finishing punch, and I believe it’s Echo of Light. He doesn’t have the class of Araafa or the other Euros, but he keeps getting better. Aragorn has dominated on American soil, but he has bullied softer competition, so I’ll go against him.
My picks: No. 6 Echo of Light (Spies speed and pounces). No. 3 Araafa (Second to the monster George Washington last time out). No. 14 Aussie Rules (Lasix and blinkers have helped).
Live longshots: No. 6 Echo of Light (10-1), 14 Aussie Rules (10-1) and No. 9 Rob Roy (15-1).
Distaff: This is easily my least favorite race of the day. In recent years, it has been chalk or bomber with few square-priced ladies gracing the circle.
Fleet Indian has won eight in a row, but I think she’s vulnerable. The 3-year-old Pine Island is a game grinder, and I like the fact that she’s fresh. Could this year’s bomber be Baghdaria? A few setbacks limited progress this summer, but Tom Amoss has her right now. Her Indiana Oaks win was impressive.
My picks: No. 2 Pine Island (Grinder rested and ready). No. 8 Baghdaria (Signaling she’s ready). No. 7 Fleet Indian (Unbeatable this year).
Live longshots: No. 8 Baghdaria (30-1) and No. 12 Asi Siempre (15-1).
Turf: Rarely will I select an American to overcome the Euro invasion in these races, but I’m making an exception. Hurricane Run will be making his third start in five weeks, and his appearance seems more afterthought than a target. Plus, I’m not sure he’s at his best.
I think Scorpion will run a big race, but can he defeat this kind off one prep following a year layoff?
With English Channel, what you see is what you get — very good and getting better. His recent win in the Turf Classic was amazing. When a horse can win that way over 12 furlongs without having to take a deep breath, I’m going to take notice.
My picks: No. 10 English Channel (Best American turfer in some time). No. 7 Hurricane Run (Euro exudes class). No. 4 Scorpion (Comebacker is quite dangerous).
Live longshot: No. 9 Red Rocks (10-1).
Classic: I take nothing away from Bernardini. He’s good — really good — but the name of this game is finding value, and if he goes off at even money, you’re crazy to back him.
George Washington’s recent win in the Queen Elizabeth II over a mile of Ascot turf was visually impressive. The horse is a freak. He has never run past 8 furlongs, nor has he ever competed on dirt. But trainer Aidan O’Brien and jockey Mick Kinane say he may be the most talented horse they’ve ever had. At 10-1, the risk is worth the potential reward.
My picks: No. 4 George Washington (Ridiculously talented). No. 3 Bernardini (As good as advertised? I think so). No. 7 David Junior (Must be respected).
Live longshots: No. 4 George Washington (10-1), No. 7 David Junior (10-1) and No. 13 Sun King (15-1).
