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:::: NY Crude Oil Futures Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 1, 2018

Analysis for the Week of December 3, 2018

THE ANALYSIS PER THE CLOSE OF Fri. Nov. 30, 2018: NY Crude Oil Futures closing today of 5093 immediately is trading down about 15% for the year from last year's closing of 6042. So far, we have been trading up for the past day since the low made on Thu. Nov. 29, 2018. (Note: We have included reference to Reversals and Short-Term timing considerations in this Summary Analysis, but please keep in mind this is a preview only - these references will be removed from Summary Analysis and moved to our higher levels of market analysis upon the upcoming launch of our expanded platform service.)

Taking a broader cyclical perspective, the view which provides a map to the future is particularly important. Our next yearly target in time for a turning point is 2020. However, we also have a directional change due in 2018, which warns we must be concerned about the price action this year. So far, we have made a new high this year warning that a year-end closing below 6042 would suggest that a correction into the next target due 2020 where we could then move into the opposite direction for the next target due in 2021 becomes possible. Closing higher will suggest we could still press higher into 2020. Our pivot point for the year is 764569 which we are trading below right now and the market needs to maintain this posture to keep this direction in play. Remember that the key indicator remains the Yearly Reversal System. The next Yearly Bullish Reversal stands at 9270. The next Yearly Bearish Reversal resides at 5243.

The historical major high took place back in 2008 and we have then witnessed a bearish subsequent trend for 9 years. The correction since that high has been a 17% decline with the next general key area to watch would be 10102 and a closing beneath that would technically imply a more correction process unfolding on a bit more sustain basis near-term. There was a subsequent correction low that formed during 2016 and we have bounced some 95% which has been a very strong rally to date. We have elected both long-term yearly buy signals during this bounce currently which suggests that a pause in the decline was warranted.

Meanwhile, our technical resistance stands at 6821 and it will require a closing above this level to signal a breakout of the upside is unfolding. Relying on our Reversal System, our next Weekly Bullish Reversal to watch stands at 7528 while the Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 4912. This provides a 34% trading range. Turning to the broader Monthly level, the current Bullish Reversal stands at 9592 while the Bearish Reversal lies at 5070. This, of course, gives us a broader trading range of a 47%. Immediately, we closed the last session trading at the 5093, which is below this level on a daily closing basis at this moment. We need to close above this on a weekly basis to signal a rally is unfolding. Right now, the market is trading some 32% beneath that level.

A possible change in trend appears due come December in NY Crude Oil Futures so be focused. The last cyclical event was a high established back during October. Normally, this implies that the next turning point should be a low. However, the market has been neutral for right now so caution is advisable. Watch the short-term trading levels for a hint of the next directional move into that target time frame. Last month produced a low at 4941 but closed on the weak side and we need to penetrate that level on a monthly closing basis to suggest perhaps a further decline.

Our Daily level momentum is bullish while the trend indicator is neutral providing a mixed short-term posture for the market. Turning to the broader picture, our long-term trend and cyclical strength indicators are both bearish reflecting resistance forming at 5030.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 1st at 7690, which was up 67 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 19th of 2017. We have been generally trading down for the past 8 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of .3574%.

Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 1st has been important closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 7527 made back during the week of July 2nd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the the week of May 21st. This immediate decline has so far held the previous low formed at 4205 made the week of June 19th. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. . Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.

At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1853 weeks. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1861 sessions. The last high on the weekly level was 7690, which was created during the week of October 1st. The previous weekly level low was 6340, which formed during the week of June 18th, and has now been broken in the recent decline. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6733 above the market.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 7690 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during October. Critical support still underlies this market at 4655 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak. Taking a broader view, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. Directing our attention to the direction of this trend, we had been moving down for-1401 months. Subsequently, the market has consolidated for the past 1402 sessions. The last high on the monthly level was 7690, which was created during October. The previous monthly level low was 2605, which formed during February 2016. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 6629 above the market.

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