Thursday, November 29, 2018 3:28:24 PM
The market expects SAIC (SAIC) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended October 2018. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on December 6. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This information technology company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.14 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +17.5%.
Revenues are expected to be $1.16 billion, up 1.4% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 0.9% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings Whisper
Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction).
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a version of the Zacks Consensus whose definition is subject to change. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for SAIC?
For SAIC, the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +0.44%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination indicates that SAIC will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?
While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that SAIC would post earnings of $0.98 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.13, delivering a surprise of +15.31%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.
Bottom Line
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
SAIC appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factors-likely-influence-guidewires-gwre-150603009.html
GO SAIC
"PEACE"
Recent SAIC News
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/17/2024 08:02:17 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/17/2024 08:02:05 PM
- Form 10-Q - Quarterly report [Sections 13 or 15(d)] • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/05/2024 08:14:09 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/05/2024 08:06:49 PM
- Form 8-K - Current report • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 09/05/2024 10:55:25 AM
- U.S. Navy Awards SAIC Three Contracts for Engineering Services • Business Wire • 08/15/2024 12:05:00 PM
- U.S. Navy Awards SAIC $120 Million Contract for Tactical Training War Game Support • Business Wire • 08/13/2024 12:05:00 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/15/2024 09:15:19 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/11/2024 08:03:45 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 07/03/2024 08:00:49 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/24/2024 08:21:52 PM
- Form 11-K - Annual report of employee stock purchase, savings and similar plans • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 06/20/2024 08:05:46 PM
- SAIC Announces First Quarter of Fiscal Year 2025 Results • Business Wire • 06/03/2024 11:03:00 AM
- SAIC Board of Directors Declares Cash Dividend • Business Wire • 05/31/2024 12:10:00 PM
- SAIC Employees Embrace Generative AI with the Launch of Tenjin GPT • Business Wire • 05/30/2024 12:05:00 PM
- SAIC Schedules First Quarter Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call for June 3 at 10 A.M. ET • Business Wire • 05/22/2024 12:05:00 PM
- SAIC Awarded $232 Million U.S. Army Contract for Systems Engineering and IT Modernization Services • Business Wire • 05/09/2024 12:05:00 PM
- Form 3 - Initial statement of beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 05/06/2024 08:02:29 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 04/30/2024 08:07:34 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 04/30/2024 08:07:19 PM
- Form DEFA14A - Additional definitive proxy soliciting materials and Rule 14(a)(12) material • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 04/24/2024 08:08:11 PM
- Form DEF 14A - Other definitive proxy statements • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 04/24/2024 08:06:29 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 04/15/2024 08:03:27 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 04/15/2024 08:03:16 PM
- Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities • Edgar (US Regulatory) • 04/15/2024 08:03:03 PM
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