Thursday, November 02, 2006 5:37:07 PM
I see three possible senarios playing out here.
1. LOI is true, along with Grimes and E. Texas. Company has assets over 50M. Hundreds of wells to recoupe and scores of already producing wells. Men and equipment to match. Moderate dilution of shares. Immediate value mark PPS based on 2cents per active well .25/S. With strong asset base and a good production schedule to bring online recouped wells. Possibly 1-1.50/s by next spring. It will take alot of demonstratable good faith on part of BIGN, eg. timely financial reporting to keep todays longs to hold. Most will sell at least half when they reach double of their position average. This takes their original money out and leaves the rest to grow. Good strategy.
odds 75% this will happen.
2. Dark Horse Candidate. BIGN is a shell company. Low price per share, few assets, publically traded, fully reporting (they would have to fix that part). They reverse merge with a private company eg. Tyche or Royal and the two become one, including all of the LOI's, assets, etc. They move to a new exchange. Advantage to private company is no IPO qualifications (they are stringent). They are now publically traded and shares are worth real money, not like Tyche shares which are currently worthless. Depending on the reverse part, say 20 BIGN shares for 1 Royal share, will determine how good a deal it is for BIGN shareholders. However, currently Royal is about $3.50/s. So, I think overall this would be a great deal.
odds 30% this will happen
3. This we all fear: The bagholders
BIGN keeps silent and never says a thing. We go sub-penny and all sell at end of year for a loss. I didn't mortgage my house for BIGN. I didn't purchase shares with a credit card. And I didn't sell my wife. If we are bagholders, I will still have my wife, house , dog, car and health. I'll be just fine. Probably feel stupid, but fine.
odds 10% this will happen
Folks this is all just my humble opinion
Billiam
BUY FEAR / SELL STRENGTH
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