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El Niño ALERT continues; positive Indian Ocean Dipole

ENSO Wrap-Up
Issued 7 November 2018
Next issue 20 November 2018

The tropical Pacific Ocean continues developing towards El Niño, while in the Indian Ocean, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is underway. The Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at El Niño ALERT, meaning there is approximately a 70% chance of El Niño occurring in the coming months; about triple the normal likelihood.

Ocean temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean have been at positive IOD levels now for two months. As a result, 2018 will be considered a positive IOD year. A positive IOD during spring increases the chance of below average rainfall for southern and central Australia, and can reinforce the effects of a developing, or fully formed, El Niño. El Niño effects in Australia over summer include higher fire risk, greater chance of heatwaves, and fewer tropical cyclones.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have warmed to El Niño levels over the past fortnight. However, atmospheric indicators of El Niño are largely near normal, suggesting that the ocean and atmosphere are not yet reinforcing each other, or 'coupled'. This reinforcement is critical in any El Niño developing and becoming self-sustaining.

International climate models suggest further warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, increasing the possibility of coupling occurring in the coming months. Seven out of eight climate models suggests sea surface temperatures will remain above El Niño thresholds until at least March 2019.

Model outlooks suggest the positive IOD will decay during November. IOD events typically have little influence on Australian climate from December to April.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml

also....

El Niño may Make a Comeback this Fall and Winter

axios.com
Aug. 16,2018

Note: Temperature anomalies are relative to the 1985 to 2012 average; Data: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Map: Chris Canipe/Axios

Odds favor a return this year of the climate phenomenon known as El Niño — above-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean and related changes in weather patterns.

Why it matters:

Depending on their intensity and exact location, El Niño events can alter global weather patterns — favoring above average precipitation in the parched state of California, for example, while inducing drought elsewhere. Typically, such events develop sometime in late summer or early fall, and peak during the winter.

Such events also can provide a natural pulse of heat released from the ocean to the atmosphere, boosting the odds that 2018 and possibly 2019 could be among the top five warmest years on record.

The big picture:

The last El Niño event took place in 2015 and 2016, and it was one of the strongest on record. Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Maryland, tells Axios that the upcoming event — which has about a 70% likelihood of occurring by the upcoming winter — is unlikely to be as potent.

"If something forms it’s likely to be on the weaker side of things," she said. "In general, weaker events tend to be a bit tougher to predict than stronger events.”

For signs of El Niño, scientists like L'Heureux look at sea surface temperatures in specific parts of the tropical Pacific, known as El Niño regions. These are the boxed areas on the sea surface temperature chart. In recent weeks, ocean temperatures have increased in parts of these areas.

But the formation of El Niño is a complicated dance between air and sea, and now, L'Heureux says, it's the atmosphere's turn to alter trade winds in a way that reinforces the changes in the water. These air and ocean feedbacks are what really get an El Niño going.

https://www.axios.com/el-nino-may-return-by-winter-73c16c52-1cb5-4639-bfb4-b5dd2a505f2d.html